Shell and Crescent Energy: The Earnings ESP Setup for Q4 2025

The immediate setup for both Shell and Crescent Energy hinges on a powerful, data-driven signal: their upcoming earnings reports are likely to feature positive surprises. This is not a guess; it's a forecast based on the Zacks Earnings ESP filter, which has a proven track record of identifying stocks poised to beat expectations.

For Shell, the catalyst arrives on January 29, 2026. The stock carries an Earnings ESP of +1.83%. This modest but positive number suggests analysts with the most recent information are tipping the scales slightly above the consensus view. While the upside may seem limited, even a small beat can provide a needed catalyst for a stock trading in a range.

The more explosive setup is for Crescent Energy. The company is scheduled to report on February 25, 2026, and its Earnings ESP is a striking +29.73%. This massive gap between the most accurate estimate and the consensus implies a very high probability of a significant earnings beat. The Zacks filter's historical performance underscores the potential here: combining a positive ESP with a Zacks Rank of #3 or better has produced a positive surprise 70% of the time and delivered 28.3% annual returns on average over a decade.

The bottom line is that these ESP metrics point to near-term catalysts for re-rating. For Shell, the event is a potential floor-lifter; for Crescent Energy, it's a potential rocket fuel. The magnitude of any stock price move, however, will ultimately depend on the underlying financial performance and whether the beat is seen as a one-time event or a sign of a sustainable trend.

Financial Mechanics: The Beat vs. The Market

The immediate financial context for these two energy names could not be more different. For Shell, the catalyst is a potential beat against a backdrop of severe sector headwinds. The company itself has warned that its oil trading performance in the fourth quarter is "expected to be significantly lower" than the prior quarter, a direct hit from a slumping crude market. This is not an isolated issue; the broader oil market is "lurching into an oversupply", pressuring margins across the industry. Shell's own CEO is navigating his first test in this lower-price environment, where even a modest earnings beat may struggle to offset the negative sentiment from trading and chemicals divisions. The sector's weak 2025 performance, with the energy sector returning just 7% compared to a 20% surge in the S&P 500, sets a low bar for re-rating. Any positive surprise from Shell will need to overcome this entrenched narrative of stagnation.

Crescent Energy operates in a different financial universe. Its setup is built on a demonstrated track record of exceeding expectations, not fighting a sector trend. The company's Q2 2025 report is a clear example: it posted an EPS of $0.43, crushing the consensus estimate of $0.23. This wasn't a one-off; the company also beat revenue estimates that quarter. This operational execution, focused on its core natural gas business, provides a tangible foundation for the high Earnings ESP. The market is pricing in a significant beat, but the company's history suggests it has the operational discipline to deliver. In a sector where growth stories are often overshadowed by commodity cycles, Crescent Energy's ability to consistently surprise on the top and bottom lines is a critical differentiator.

The bottom line is a stark contrast in risk/reward mechanics. Shell's beat is a potential antidote to a deteriorating financial picture, making it a classic "good news is bad news" trade if the miss is avoided. Crescent Energy's beat is a validation of strong execution in a challenging sector, offering a cleaner path to re-rating. For investors, the financial mechanics suggest that Crescent Energy's catalyst is more likely to be a pure, positive surprise, while Shell's is a defensive beat against a worsening backdrop.

Catalysts and Risks: The Setup for Each Stock

For Shell, the immediate risk is that any earnings beat is completely offset by the ongoing losses in its trading division. The company has explicitly warned that its oil trading performance for the quarter is "expected to be significantly lower" than the prior period, a direct hit from a slump in crude prices. A beat on the core upstream line may be overshadowed by this negative headline, leaving the stock stuck in its current range. The reward, however, hinges on the company's ability to demonstrate that its operational strength can support the EPS beat. The key positive catalyst is the projected rise in upstream production, which is expected to hit 1.94 million boe/d. If this production growth translates into stable cash flow and margins, it provides a tangible foundation for the beat and a potential re-rating. The setup is a tightrope walk: the stock needs to show resilience in its core business to overcome the trading drag.

For Crescent Energy, the high Earnings ESP of +29.73% suggests strong execution is already priced in. The risk is that this becomes a one-time beat that does not repeat. The company has a history of exceeding expectations, as seen in its Q2 2025 report where it crushed estimates. Yet, a single quarter of outperformance does not guarantee a trend. The reward is that the stock may be trading at a discount to its fair value, a common trait for energy names that consistently beat but are overlooked. The market's high expectations for a beat could create a classic "sell the news" scenario if the company merely meets the elevated bar rather than blows it away. The setup here is about managing the gap between a proven track record and the sky-high consensus.

A broader sector catalyst could benefit both companies. The political shift in Venezuela has triggered a capital influx into the energy sector, as investors anticipate a long period of industrial reconstruction. This could lead to a wave of government contracts for service companies and oil majors to repair infrastructure and restart production. The market's reaction on January 5th, where stocks like Halliburton and SLB rallied over 7%, shows the immediate power of this narrative. If this spending cycle gains momentum, it could provide a tailwind for both Shell's trading and Crescent Energy's upstream operations, validating the investment thesis for both.