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Shares Rise Ahead of Nvidia Results; BOJ's Ueda Offers Few Rate Hints

Eli GrantSunday, Nov 17, 2024 9:38 pm ET
5min read
Nvidia's shares have been on the rise ahead of its earnings release, reflecting investor confidence in the tech giant's strong fundamentals and growth prospects. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda offered few hints on potential interest rate hikes during his speech in Nagoya, maintaining a data-dependent stance.

Nvidia's focus on AI and data center technologies has significantly boosted its long-term growth prospects. The company's Data Center business, which now comprises the majority of its revenue, saw sales surge by 409% to $18.40 billion in Q4 FY24. This growth is driven by increasing demand from large cloud providers, highlighting Nvidia's strong position in the AI and data center markets. Nvidia's AI capabilities, particularly in advanced AI semiconductors, have been a key driver of this growth. However, recent U.S. restrictions on exporting these semiconductors to China temporarily impacted the company's data center revenue. Nvidia has since reconfigured its products to comply with these restrictions, resuming sampling to customers in China. This strategic move demonstrates Nvidia's ability to adapt to regulatory changes, further enhancing its long-term growth prospects.

Nvidia's shares have risen ahead of its earnings results, indicating investor confidence in the company's long-term prospects. As of November 18, 2024, 45 analysts have provided 12-month price targets for Nvidia, with an average target of $344.93, indicating a potential upside of 14.3% from the current stock price (NVDA: $301.78). Among these, 35 analysts have a 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy' rating, while only 10 have a 'Hold' or 'Sell' rating (Source: TipRanks). This overwhelmingly positive analyst sentiment contributes to the bullish momentum in Nvidia's stock ahead of its earnings release. Additionally, the company's strong fundamentals, including robust data center sales and growth in AI semiconductors, further bolster analysts' confidence in Nvidia's prospects.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's speech in Nagoya on Monday was closely watched by markets for hints on whether the BOJ might raise interest rates next month. However, Ueda offered few hints on potential rate hikes, maintaining a data-dependent stance. The BOJ has been closely watched for its interest rate decisions, with its inflation target and economic outlook playing a significant role. The BOJ has set a 2% inflation target, which it aims to achieve in a sustainable manner. In its recent policy meeting, the BOJ kept its policy interest rate unchanged at around 0.25 percent, despite political uncertainty following the loss of the ruling parties' majority in the general election. The BOJ also updated its growth and price outlook, forecasting core consumer inflation at 2.5 percent for the current fiscal year, unchanged from the earlier projection. However, it lowered the inflation rate for fiscal 2025 from 2.1 percent to 1.9 percent, below its price stability goal of 2 percent.



Ueda's speech may address the yen's recent weakness and its impact on inflation by acknowledging the currency's depreciation and its influence on import costs. He might reiterate the BOJ's commitment to achieving its 2% inflation target, while also emphasizing the importance of monitoring economic and price developments. Ueda could hint at potential policy adjustments, such as a rate hike, if the BOJ's outlook for economic activity and prices warrants it. However, he is likely to maintain a data-dependent stance, keeping his options open regarding the timing of any rate hike.

International factors, such as U.S. monetary policy, play a significant role in the BOJ's interest rate decision. The BOJ's Governor Ueda has indicated that the central bank will make policy decisions based on its latest assessment of the current state of and outlook for economic activity and prices. This suggests that the BOJ is data-dependent and considers global economic trends when making decisions. In this context, U.S. monetary policy, which has been tightening recently, may influence the BOJ's decision-making process, as the two economies are closely interconnected through trade and investment.

Market expectations and investor sentiment play a significant role in shaping the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) policy announcements. As BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda prepares to speak in Nagoya, investors are keenly awaiting hints on the next rate hike. The yen's recent weakness, pushing up inflation and import costs, adds pressure on the BOJ to act soon. However, Ueda's data-dependent stance and the BOJ's commitment to achieving its 2% inflation target suggest a cautious approach. Market expectations and sentiment will continue to influence the BOJ's policy decisions, with a balanced assessment of economic indicators and investor sentiment crucial for maintaining market stability.
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