SES AI Outlook: Bearish Momentum Grows Amid Mixed Technical and Fundamental Signals

Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: SES AI (SES.N) is under pressure with a recent price drop of -8.67%, and our internal diagnostic score (0-10) for fundamentals stands at 1.27 — suggesting caution for potential buyers.

News Highlights

Recent headlines offer a mixed landscape for AI and tech sectors. Notable stories include:

• Texas Instruments at Bernstein Conference — Highlighting strategic growth and challenges in the industrial and automotive sectors. While this doesn’t directly impact SES AI, it underscores AI's growing role in manufacturing and semiconductors.
• Vodafone Idea’s Rs 20,000 crore fundraise — The company is strengthening its financial position for 5G rollout. This signals broader tech investment, which could eventually benefit AI-driven firms like SES AI.
• Wells Fargo's $450M capital redemption — A move to optimize balance sheets, indicating a broader industry shift toward shareholder value. While neutral for SES AI, it suggests a capital-conscious market.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Despite the recent price drop, a Cantor Fitzgerald analyst, Derek Soderberg, has issued a "Buy" rating with a historical win rate of 66.7%. However, the simple average rating is 4.00 and the performance-weighted average is 3.70 — indicating a mixed consensus. These scores are disconnected from the current negative price trend (-8.67%), suggesting that expectations don’t fully align with recent market behavior.

Key fundamentals (using our proprietary model scores) show:

• ROE (%): -22.11% — Internal diagnostic score: 1.01
• Net profit margin (%): -340.69% — Internal diagnostic score: 0.00
• ROA (%): -18.11% — Internal diagnostic score: 0.24
• Asset-MV ratio: -0.45 — Internal diagnostic score: 0.38

The picture is bleak: most financial metrics are negative, with internal diagnostic scores reflecting poor alignment with positive investment outcomes.

Money-Flow Trends

Money is moving out of SES AI despite retail optimism. The fund-flow score is a 7.64 (good), driven by retail inflows (51.6% of total inflows), while institutional investors are net outflows. Specifically:

• Small investors: positive trend with 51.64% inflow ratio
• Large and extra-large investors: negative trends with inflow ratios of 47.5% and 45.5%, respectively

This pattern suggests retail optimism isn’t yet convincing big money — a warning sign for speculative plays.

Key Technical Signals

SES AI's technicals are underperforming. The internal technical score is 3.31, and the chart has shown more bearish than bullish signals:

• MACD Death Cross (score: 1.70) and MACD Golden Cross (score: 1.00) — both bearish
• Long Upper Shadow (score: 1.71) — neutral bias
• Inverted Hammer (score: 8.07) — strong bullish signal, but rare

Recent chart patterns (last 5 days) include:

• Dec 17, 2025: WR Oversold, Bearish Engulfing, MACD Death Cross
• Dec 18, 2025: Long Upper Shadow, Inverted Hammer
• Dec 23, 2025: Long Upper Shadow, MACD Golden Cross

The key technical insight is that bearish indicators (5) far outweigh bullish ones (1). The trend is weak, and the volatility without clear direction makes it a high-risk scenario.

Conclusion

SES AI remains a volatile and bearish play, with weak fundamentals, mixed analyst sentiment, and a technical profile that suggests caution. While a rare bullish pattern (Inverted Hammer) appeared recently, the broader trend is negative. Given the internal diagnostic scores and the bearish fund flows, investors are advised to avoid this stock for now. Consider watching upcoming earnings or capital-raising developments for a potential turnaround signal.