ServiceNow's 15min chart exhibits MACD Death Cross and KDJ Death Cross.

Based on the 15-minute chart of ServiceNow, the MACD and KDJ indicators have both formed death crosses as of September 4, 2025 at 09:45. This suggests that the stock price has the potential to continue declining and that the momentum of the stock price is shifting in a downward direction, potentially leading to further decreases in value.

ServiceNow's aggressive expansion into the U.S. federal market through AI-driven solutions has positioned the company as a key player in government modernization. The company's strategic partnerships, aggressive discounting, and alignment with national priorities are driving long-term growth and market capture.

In 2025, ServiceNow secured 415 government contracts, with agencies like the CIA and Navy reporting 40% workflow efficiency gains. Despite offering steep discounts, public sector sales rose by 30% in Q1 2025, with AI Annual Contract Value (ACV) hitting $420 million. ServiceNow aims to reach a $1 billion AI ACV target by 2026 [1].

ServiceNow's collaboration with the General Services Administration (GSA) under the OneGov initiative has been pivotal. This landmark agreement offers federal agencies up to 70% discounts on AI-enhanced IT Service Management (ITSM) Pro and Pro Plus bundles through 2028 and 40% off standalone upgrades through 2026 [2]. These discounts are part of a broader push to align with President Trump’s AI Action Plan, which aims to improve government efficiency by 30% or more through automation and analytics [2].

The company’s Government Transformation Suite further solidifies its position by addressing federal priorities such as transparency and accountability. ServiceNow’s AI Platform has already been adopted by high-profile agencies, including the CIA, U.S. Navy, and the Department of Veterans Affairs, which have reported measurable workflow improvements [4].

Despite offering steep discounts, ServiceNow has maintained robust financial performance. In Q1 2025, public sector sales grew by 30% year-over-year, even as the OneGov deal reduced pricing [3]. This resilience is attributed to the high demand for AI-powered tools that reduce operational costs for agencies. For instance, the U.S. Navy’s adoption of ServiceNow’s AI solutions has reportedly cut manual labor by 40%, offsetting revenue dilution from discounts [4].

Subscription revenue growth further underscores this trend. In Q2 2025, ServiceNow reported a 22.5% year-over-year increase in subscription revenue, with AI-led initiatives driving much of this expansion [1]. The company’s AI Annual Contract Value (ACV) surged to $420 million in Q2 2025, signaling strong client retention and positioning ServiceNow to reach a $1 billion AI ACV target by 2026 [1].

ServiceNow's ability to secure high-volume contracts and integrate AI into core government functions suggests a durable market capture. The OneGov deal alone ensures sustained revenue streams through 2028, while the Government Transformation Suite opens new avenues for cross-selling. Agencies adopting ServiceNow’s platform are likely to become long-term clients, given the complexity and cost of switching to alternative systems.

Moreover, ServiceNow’s alignment with national AI priorities—such as streamlining workflows and enhancing cybersecurity—positions it to benefit from ongoing federal spending. With the U.S. government committing over $10 billion to AI modernization by 2027 [2], ServiceNow’s ecosystem of AI tools is well-positioned to dominate this space.

Conclusion: A Compelling Investment Thesis

ServiceNow’s strategic AI push into the federal market combines aggressive pricing, high-value solutions, and alignment with national priorities to drive long-term growth. While discounts may temporarily compress margins, the company’s ability to offset this through volume and efficiency gains demonstrates a resilient business model. For investors, the combination of contract volume, agency adoption rates, and AI ACV growth paints a compelling picture of a company poised to lead the federal AI revolution.

References:
[1] ServiceNow, GSA strike OneGov deal to drive government AI adoption [https://www.nextgov.com/acquisition/2025/09/servicenow-gsa-strike-onegov-deal-drive-government-ai-adoption/407844/?oref=ng-homepage-river]
[2] GSA and ServiceNow Strike Landmark OneGov Deal to Power AI-First Modernization for a New Era of Government [https://www.gsa.gov/about-us/newsroom/news-releases/gsa-servicenow-strike-landmark-onegov-deal-09032025]
[3] ServiceNow posts upbeat quarterly profit on resilient AI-powered software demand [https://www.reuters.com/technology/servicenow-posts-upbeat-quarterly-profit-resilient-ai-powered-software-demand-2025-04-23/]
[4] ServiceNow's Strategic AI Push in Federal Markets [https://www.ainvest.com/news/servicenow-strategic-ai-push-federal-markets-valuation-catalysts-long-term-growth-potential-public-sector-ai-adoption-2509/]