Sera Prognostics 2025 Q3 Earnings Narrows Losses Despite 44.8% Revenue Drop

Sera Prognostics (SERA) reported fiscal 2025 Q3 results on November 14, 2025, with revenue declining 44.8% year-over-year to $16,000 and net losses narrowing by 1.3% to -$7.81 million. While missing revenue estimates, the company exceeded EPS expectations, posting a loss of $0.16 per share versus a $0.24 loss in 2024 Q3. Management highlighted progress in Medicaid expansion and cost discipline, though long-term growth remains tied to payer coverage and commercialization execution.

Revenue

The total revenue of Sera Prognostics decreased by 44.8% to $16,000 in 2025 Q3, down from $29,000 in 2024 Q3.

Earnings/Net Income

Sera Prognostics narrowed losses to $0.16 per share in 2025 Q3 from a loss of $0.24 per share in 2024 Q3 (33.3% improvement). Meanwhile, the company successfully narrowed its net loss to $-7.81 million in 2025 Q3, reducing losses by 1.3% compared to the $-7.92 million net loss reported in 2024 Q3. The EPS improvement reflects positive operational adjustments, though the company remains unprofitable.

Post-Earnings Price Action Review

Sera Prognostics demonstrated resilience despite missing revenue estimates, with a smaller loss and improved cost control in Q3 2025. Analysts remain bullish, citing long-term potential driven by Medicaid expansion to 13 states and payer coverage negotiations. The company’s $102.4 million cash position provides flexibility for commercialization, though short-term volatility and execution risks—such as Medicaid coverage delays—pose challenges. A 30-day holding period balances flexibility with caution in a high-risk biotech sector.

CEO Commentary

Evguenia Lindgardt emphasized progress in PreTRM Test adoption through Medicaid pilots and expanded payer discussions. She highlighted the PRIME study’s pending peer-reviewed publication and a 24–36-month timeline for guideline inclusion. Strategic priorities include value-based care contracts, real-world evidence generation, and regional sales force expansion, despite challenges in Medicaid coverage timelines.

Guidance

The PRIME study results are projected for peer-reviewed publication by year-end, with guideline inclusion expected 24–36 months post-publication. While no specific revenue targets were provided, Lindgardt outlined plans to expand the sales force in 2026 as traction grows. SG&A expenses will remain similar to 2025, with capital reallocated toward sales and marketing.

Additional News

1. Medicaid Expansion: Sera Prognostics accelerated Medicaid pilot expansion to 13 states, aiming to boost PreTRM Test adoption.

2. C-Level Updates: CEO Evguenia Lindgardt and CFO Austin Aerts outlined a 24–36-month timeline for PRIME study guideline inclusion.

3. Insider Transactions: CEO Lindgardt and CFO Aerts filed to sell shares via Form 144, while officers surrendered or sold restricted stock to cover tax liabilities.

Revenue

Earnings/Net Income

Price Action

The stock price of Sera Prognostics has dropped 5.14% during the latest trading day, has jumped 9.26% during the most recent full trading week, and has dropped 6.35% month-to-date.