Sera Prognostics 2025 Q3 Earnings 33.3% EPS Improvement Despite Revenue Decline

Sera Prognostics (SERA) reported Q3 2025 earnings that beat EPS estimates by $0.04 but missed revenue expectations. The company narrowed its per-share loss to $0.16 from $0.24 year-over-year and reduced its net loss by 1.3% to $7.81 million. Analysts remain cautiously optimistic, citing improved cost control and strategic Medicaid and insurance partnerships.

Revenue

Earnings/Net Income

Sera Prognostics improved its per-share loss by 33.3% year-over-year, narrowing the deficit to $0.16 in Q3 2025. The net loss also declined slightly to $7.81 million, though the company has sustained losses for six consecutive years. While the EPS improvement is a positive sign, the persistent net losses underscore ongoing financial challenges.

Price Action

The stock price of Sera Prognostics experienced mixed performance post-earnings: a 5.14% drop during the latest trading day, a 9.26% rebound during the subsequent week, and a 6.35% decline month-to-date. These fluctuations reflect investor uncertainty amid the company’s revenue shortfall and long-term operational hurdles.

Post-Earnings Price Action Review

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The post-earnings price action highlights investor skepticism despite improved cost management. While the stock briefly rebounded weekly, the month-to-date decline suggests lingering concerns over revenue sustainability. Analysts remain divided, with some emphasizing the company’s strategic Medicaid and insurance partnerships as potential long-term catalysts.

CEO Commentary

Evguenia Lindgardt highlighted progress in scaling the PreTRM Test’s adoption through Medicaid pilot programs and payer negotiations. She emphasized geographic expansion, strategic leadership hires, and the PRIME study’s impending publication as key drivers for future growth. Lindgardt acknowledged the 24-month Medicaid timeline as a challenge but expressed confidence in the “flywheel effect” of commercial execution.

Guidance

The company confirmed the PRIME study’s year-end publication and reiterated a 24-month Medicaid coverage timeline. While Q3 revenue fell to $16,000 and the net loss reached $7.8M, CFO Austin Aerts noted $102.4M in cash reserves. Management plans to maintain disciplined capital allocation in 2026, prioritizing sales and marketing over SG&A expenses. No explicit revenue or EPS guidance was provided.

Additional News

Sera Prognostics faced mixed headlines post-earnings. The Nevada Medicaid pilot’s active enrollment and partnerships covering 33% of U.S. births drew investor attention, while CEO Evguenia Lindgardt and CFO Austin Aerts filed Form 144s to sell shares totaling 6,351 and 11,594, respectively. Analysts remained cautiously bullish, citing improved cost control and long-term partnership potential. Additionally, the company’s GAAP EPS of -$0.16 beat estimates, though revenue missed expectations by $0.09M.

Key Takeaways

• Operational Efficiency: R&D expenses dropped to $3.3M from $3.5M, signaling tighter cost management.

• Strategic Partnerships: Medicaid and insurance collaborations could drive long-term adoption of the PreTRM Test.

• Leadership Moves: New hires in key roles, including a Chief Medical Officer, signal commitment to commercialization.

• Market Reaction: Analysts remain split, with some emphasizing the company’s long-term potential despite near-term revenue concerns.

Risks to Watch

• Revenue Sustainability: Persistent revenue declines raise questions about commercial execution.

• Competitive Landscape: Payer negotiations and market adoption face long timelines and regulatory hurdles.

• Shareholder Confidence: Insider sales and a 61.7% YTD stock decline highlight investor uncertainty.

Conclusion

Sera Prognostics’ Q3 results reflect a mixed performance, with improved EPS and cost discipline offset by revenue challenges. While strategic Medicaid and insurance partnerships offer long-term potential, near-term execution risks and financial headwinds remain critical concerns for investors.