Will September Nonfarm Payrolls Even Be Released Amid the Shutdown?

As the U.S. government lurches into shutdown, financial markets brace not only for political fallout but for the possibility that the much-anticipated September nonfarm payrolls report may never see the light of day.

A Government in Suspended Animation

At 12:01 a.m. on October 1, 2025, the federal government officially shut down after Congress failed to pass appropriations legislation. The impasse leaves many agencies—among them the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Commerce Department—halting or scaling back operations, including the suspension of data publication activities. With much of the Labor Department in lockdown, it now appears unlikely that the September nonfarm payrolls report will be formally released on schedule.

Without that standard monthly update, markets and policymakers will be forced to rely on a patchwork of private and alternative indicators—such as ADP estimates, JOLTS job openings, and proprietary labor data models—to approximate the health of the U.S. labor market.

Trump’s Moves in the Midst of Chaos

President Trump has leaned into the turmoil, framing the shutdown as an opportunity to purge what he calls “Democrat agencies.” He convened with OMB Director Russell Vought to discuss potential cuts and even floated layoff plans for federal workers whose roles he deems “nonessential.” In a telling remark, he said, “When you shut it down, you have to do layoffs,” further fueling concerns about permanent reductions in federal staffing.

The White House has also delayed or frozen billions in federal funding—especially in Democratic-led states—citing “unconstitutional DEI” intentions among certain programs. The budget standoff continues to sharpen partisan lines, and as of now, no clear path to reopening the government has emerged.

What the Markets Are Saying

Many analysts view a missing nonfarm payroll print as a destabilizer. Without that marquee data point, the Federal Reserve could face difficulty assessing labor trends before its October meeting. As Reuters noted, the data suspension “throws the brakes on the flow of federal economic data at a moment of uncertainty.”

Oxford Economics estimates that each week of shutdown could shave 0.1–0.2 percentage points off GDP growth, and a quarter-long shutdown might trim as much as 2.4%. Citi’s Daniel Tobon says the combination of weak ADP readings and a data blackout is a “double whammy.”

Markets are already reacting: equities dipped ~0.5% in recent sessions, with rate-sensitive names like Nvidia and Tesla under pressure, while bond yields have ticked upward. Some strategists believe the lack of clear data may push the Fed to pause any rate cuts until market visibility improves.

The Stakes Behind the Payrolls Report

Expectation across a number of economists was for a modest gain of 43,000 to 51,000 jobs in September—barely enough to hold the unemployment rate steady. But private-sector data from ADP has already contradicted that narrative, reporting a decline of 32,000 jobs in the month. That sharp deviation heightens the urgency—and the uncertainty—around what the official data would have shown.

Missing or delayed, the nonfarm payrolls report usually acts as a backbone for economic modeling, investment decisions, and central bank policy pivots. Its absence during a heightened moment of macro fragility intensifies the fog for market participants.

Final Thought

In normal times, a delayed data release is an annoyance. In a moment like this—amid political brinksmanship, macro fragility, and investor nerves—it becomes a weapon. Should the BLS withhold the September payrolls print, we won’t just lose a number: we lose clarity, and that uncertainty could echo through markets and policy decisions alike.