Is September 6–8 the Catalyst for a New Bitcoin Bull Run in 2025?

The Convergence of Technical and Sentiment Signals

Bitcoin’s price action from September 6–8, 2025, reveals a complex interplay of technical indicators and market sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin stood at 40 on September 6, nearing oversold territory and suggesting potential for a rebound [2]. Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index registered 48, reflecting a shift from fear to cautious optimism [2]. This aligns with historical patterns where Bitcoin’s seasonal weakness in September has often been followed by sharp rebounds, particularly when technical indicators signal exhaustion in selling pressure [2].

The Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) show a bullish alignment, with the 50-day EMA above the 200-day EMA, though the price remains in a consolidation phase near these averages [2]. A critical test of $113,000 resistance looms, with a break above this level potentially triggering a retest of all-time highs. Conversely, a drop below $108,000 support could reignite bearish momentum, as seen in the pullback from $112,000 to $110,888 on September 4–5 [1].

Whale Accumulation and Institutional Buying

Whale activity has been a standout feature of this period. The number of entities holding 1,000+ BTC surged from 1,392 to 1,417 in a week, signaling renewed institutional or large-scale investor confidence [1]. Smaller investors, or “shrimps,” also participated in accumulation, a rare but historically significant indicator of bullish sentiment [1].

Institutional buying further reinforced this trend. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of $406.6 million on September 2 and 3, though this reversed to $357.7 million outflows on September 4, reflecting short-term profit-taking [1]. Corporate entities, however, continued to add to their Bitcoin reserves, with treasury-oriented companies purchasing an estimated 1,400 BTC daily [4]. This suggests a long-term bullish narrative, as corporations increasingly view Bitcoin as a strategic asset.

Diverging Macro and On-Chain Signals

While technical and whale activity point to potential strength, macroeconomic risks persist. The Average Directional Index (ADX) at 20 indicates choppy, directionless trading, and the Squeeze Momentum Indicator being “off” suggests bearish pressure remains dominant [2]. Additionally, the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report on September 5 and the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on September 17 could introduce volatility [1]. A 83% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut exists, which could act as a tailwind for Bitcoin [1].

On-chain data also reveals mixed signals. A high-profile whale moved $8.6 billion in BTC to SegWit addresses, a move attributed to quantum computing concerns rather than immediate market activity [5]. While this underscores long-term security priorities, it does not directly influence short-term price dynamics.

Strategic Entry Point for Long-Term Investors?

The case for a strategic entry point hinges on balancing these factors. Bullish arguments include:
- RSI near oversold levels and hidden bullish divergence, suggesting a potential rebound [2].
- Whale accumulation and institutional buying, indicating confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value [1][4].
- Corporate adoption and ETF inflows, which could drive demand as a store of value [4].

Bearish risks, however, cannot be ignored:
- Historical September weakness, with an average decline of -3.77% since 2013 [2].
- Macro volatility from Fed policy and geopolitical risks, such as U.S. government shutdown deadlines [1].
- ETF outflows and profit-taking pressure, which could exacerbate short-term declines [1].

Conclusion: A Calculated Bet Amid Uncertainty

For long-term investors, September 6–8, 2025, presents a nuanced opportunity. While technical indicators and whale activity suggest a potential catalyst for a bull run, macroeconomic uncertainties and historical seasonal patterns necessitate caution. A strategic entry could be justified if Bitcoin breaks above $113,000 resistance and institutional buying resumes, particularly if the Fed’s rate cut materializes. However, investors should remain vigilant to downside risks, with key support levels at $108,000 and $101,000 serving as critical watchpoints [3].

In the end, Bitcoin’s trajectory will depend on whether the accumulation and technical resilience can overcome the “Red September” curse—a test of both market psychology and macroeconomic fundamentals.

**Source:[1] HashWhale Crypto Weekly | Whales Take Profits; Overall ... [https://www.chaincatcher.com/en/article/2203660][2] Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP Hold Steady as 'Red ... [https://decrypt.co/337582/bitcoin-ethereum-xrp-price-red-september-analysis][3] How Low Can Bitcoin Go in September 2025? BTC Price Predictions Analysis [https://www.financemagnates.com/trending/how-low-can-bitcoin-go-in-september-2025-btc-price-predictions-analysis/][4] BTC Recovery Gains Momentum, Can Corporate Buying Sustain the Rally? [https://margex.com/en/blog/btc-recovery-gains-momentum-can-corporate-buying-sustain-the-rally/][5] Did Quantum Fears Prompt a Bitcoin Whale to Make an $8 Billion Move? [https://thequantuminsider.com/2025/07/08/did-quantum-fears-prompt-a-bitcoin-whale-to-make-an-8-billion-move/]