Seplat's Insider Deal: Is the CEO Buying or Selling?

The core news here is a clean exit for a major oil company. French energy giant TotalEnergies has signed an agreement to sell its 10% non-operated stake in the Nigerian onshore oil asset SPDC, now renamed the Renaissance JV, to a new consortium called Vaaris. The deal is valued at an estimated $860 million and includes stakes in 15 oil-producing licenses and three gas-producing licenses that feed Nigeria's key LNG export project.

This transaction follows a clear pattern of divestment. It comes just months after a similar deal fell apart. Last year, Total's initial sale to Mauritius-based Chappal Energies was blocked by Nigerian regulators because the buyer failed to raise the needed funds. That failure forced the cancellation of the deal, a setback for Total's strategy to shed mature, high-risk assets in Nigeria's Niger Delta.

The new deal with Vaaris is structured to avoid that pitfall. By bringing together a group of Nigerian companies specializing in marginal fields, former Seplat CEO Austin Avuru has assembled a buyer with local expertise and presumably, a more credible capital base. The consortium's ability to fund the purchase is the critical factor that made this deal possible where the last one failed.

Smart Money Signals: Heirs Energies Buys, CEO Sells?

The market's reaction to Seplat's bold new plan tells one story. The actions of its insiders tell another. This is the classic smart money test: where does real skin in the game lie?

On one side, you have a powerful vote of confidence from a major local player. In late 2025, Tony Elumelu's Heirs Energies completed a deal involving the purchase of 120.4 million shares at £3.05 apiece, valuing the transaction at roughly $500 million. That 20.07% stake makes Heirs the largest shareholder. For a company that has become a bellwether for Nigeria's oil sector recovery, this is a significant bet. The financing, backed by Afreximbank and Africa Finance Corporation, signals deep local capital is stepping up to fund growth where international majors are stepping back.

The market's immediate response to Seplat's own bullish move was telling. When the company unveiled its $3 billion five-year investment plan for its newly acquired ExxonMobil assets, the stock price jumped over 6%. That rally shows investors are buying the growth narrative. Yet, the insider transaction data paints a different picture. While a few non-executive directors made small purchases in late 2024, there is no visible buying by the CEO or other top insiders in recent months. The chairman's sole purchase was a modest 1 purchase of 64,434 shares worth £4.4 million in December 2024.

The bottom line is a clear divergence. The smart money-Heirs Energies-is putting hundreds of millions on the line, betting on Seplat's future. Meanwhile, the CEO and other top insiders have not mirrored that commitment with their own stock purchases. In a setup where a major shareholder is buying and the stock is rallying, the lack of visible insider buying from the top team is a notable red flag. It raises the question: if the leadership doesn't see the same value, is the current price a trap for latecomers?

The Regulatory Trap: A Cautionary Tale

The smart money is betting on a deal that still needs a stamp of approval. The primary risk to this thesis is a Nigerian regulator's high bar for foreign capital. This isn't theoretical; it's a precedent set just last year.

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has already shown it will revoke a major sale if the buyer can't fund it. Last year, the commission blocked Total's initial $860 million deal with Mauritius-based Chappal Energies because the buyer failed to raise the needed funds. The NUPRC explicitly cited financial obligations with strict deadlines that both parties failed to meet, forcing the cancellation.

That sets a strict financial obligation precedent. The new consortium, Vaaris, must now clear the same hurdle. The deal remains subject to regulatory approvals, a condition that could delay or block the transaction. This is the critical test. The consortium's ability to fund the purchase is the factor that made this deal possible where the last one failed. For now, the setup is clear: the smart money is moving, but the regulator holds the final key.

Catalysts and What to Watch

The setup is clear. The smart money is moving, but the real test is whether the company's own leadership will follow. For investors, the path forward hinges on three key signals to watch.

First, watch for any insider buying by Seplat's CEO or board members following the Total-Vaaris deal announcement. The chairman's single purchase of 64,434 shares worth £4.4 million in December was a modest start. But the CEO, who facilitated the Total exit, has not made a visible purchase in recent months. If the leadership team sees the same value in Seplat's future as Heirs Energies does, we should see them put more skin in the game. A lack of buying from the top team, especially after a major deal is announced, is a red flag that the growth narrative may not be fully aligned with those in charge.

Second, monitor regulatory approvals for the TotalEnergies-Vaaris deal. The deal remains subject to conditions, and delays would signal ongoing scrutiny from Nigerian regulators. This is the same hurdle that sank the previous deal last year. The new consortium, Vaaris, must now clear the same high bar. Any sign of friction or extended review would confirm that the regulatory environment remains a persistent risk, not just a one-time event.

Third, track Seplat's actual spending against its $3 billion five-year investment plan. The stock's 6% pop on the announcement showed the market is buying the promise. But the real test is execution. Investors need to see capital flowing into the ground as promised. This will be the ultimate proof that the company is delivering on its commitments and that the bullish thesis is grounded in real activity, not just talk.