Sempra Outlook - Mixed Signals Amid Cautious Technicals

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Sempra (SRE) is showing a modest price rise of 0.60% but faces a weak technical outlook. Caution is advised as indicators are mixed and momentum is unclear.

News Highlights

Recent headlines highlight Sempra's presence in regional banking and healthcare sectors but offer limited direct insight into the company’s energy and utility operations. Notable items include:

• Stryker tops list of West Michigan’s largest publicly traded companies: While Stryker’s 10.2% revenue growth in FY2024 is notable, Sempra is not in this group, though it underscores broader trends in corporate performance in the region.
• SEC filings and bank-related insider trading: Independent Bank (IBCP) and others have filed insider transactions and SEC forms, but these primarily relate to smaller banks and are not directly tied to Sempra. Still, they reflect general market activity in the sector.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

The analyst landscape for Sempra remains relatively neutral. Here's what the numbers say:

• Average (simple) rating score: 3.00
• Weighted (performance-adjusted) rating score: 3.33
• Ratings consistency: There are differences among analysts, but the single recent rating from Barclays is neutral.

Analysts appear cautious, with no strong bullish or bearish consensus. This matches the current price trend of a modest 0.60% rise, suggesting market expectations are in line with recent performance.

Key fundamental factors and their values are:

• Basic EPS YoY growth: -12.13% (Model score: 5.35)
• Diluted EPS YoY growth: -12.18% (Model score: 5.35)
• Net profit attributable to parent / total net profit: 95.06% (Model score: 5.35)
• Non-current assets / total assets: 95.83% (Model score: 5.35)

While earnings are down, net profit is largely attributable to parent shareholders, and the company maintains a high proportion of non-current assets — suggesting a conservative asset structure.

Money-Flow Trends

Big money is flowing out of Sempra across all sizes of investors. The fund-flow score is 7.77 (internal diagnostic score 0-10), which is good in the context of a negative trend, indicating that the outflow is relatively contained and not panic-driven:

• Small investors: 48.87% inflow ratio (negative trend)
• Large to extra-large investors: Inflow ratios range from 48.91% to 49.04% (negative trend)

While both retail and institutional flows are trending negatively, the block inflow ratio is at 49.00%, indicating that large investors are still slightly more active than others, even as they pull back.

Key Technical Signals

Technically, Sempra is in a weak state with mixed signals. The technical score is 4.82 (internal diagnostic score 0-10), signaling caution and a volatile environment. Here's the breakdown:

• Bullish Engulfing pattern (internal diagnostic score 7.59): A strong bullish signal, suggesting a reversal or strength in the short term.
• WR Overbought (internal diagnostic score 3.37): Indicates overbought conditions, suggesting caution on the long side.
• MACD Golden Cross (internal diagnostic score 2.24): A neutral-to-bullish signal, but weak on historical performance, with only a 40% win rate.
• Marubozu White (internal diagnostic score 4.17): A neutral signal, suggesting a continuation pattern.

Recent indicators (last 5 days) include: WR Overbought, Three White Soldiers, and MACD Golden Cross, indicating a conflicted momentum phase. The key insight is that the market remains volatile, and the direction is not clear. Investors should monitor for short-term shifts in market sentiment.

Conclusion

Sempra is in a holding pattern at the moment. While fundamentals remain stable and technical indicators are mixed, the best action is to watch for a clearer trend before committing to a position. Consider waiting for a pull-back or a stronger technical signal, such as a break of key resistance levels or a clearer bullish pattern like a confirmed Three White Soldiers formation.