Semiconductors and Streaming: Riding Earnings Catalysts Through Macro Storms

The tech and media sectors are navigating a dual challenge: near-term macroeconomic headwinds tied to Federal Reserve policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, and the promise of robust earnings catalysts from industry leaders. Amid this tension, Nvidia (NVDA), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), and Netflix (NFLX) stand out as key players whose upcoming financial results could offset macro noise and justify selective long positions. Meanwhile, luxury sentiment—evident in Ferrari's (RACE) stock surge—suggests resilient consumer demand at the top of the market. Here's why investors should focus on these catalysts rather than overreacting to macro headlines.

Semiconductor Leaders: TSMC's Earnings as a Near-Term Catalyst

The most immediate catalyst is TSMC's Q2 2025 earnings, reported on July 17, 2025. Analysts anticipate robust revenue growth, driven by AI-driven demand for advanced chips used in data centers and high-end GPUs. TSMC's guidance on Q3 2025 and beyond will be critical. Historically, when TSM has beaten earnings expectations, its stock has seen an 87.5% chance of rising over the next three days, with a 30-day win rate of 88.89%, according to backtests from 2022 to present.

NVDA, a key TSMC client, is also in focus. While its Q2 2025 results are already in the books (reported in August y2024), the company's upcoming Q3 2025 earnings on November 20, 2025 will test its ability to sustain momentum in AI infrastructure. NVDA's record Q1 2026 revenue ($44.1 billion) and its $45.0 billion Q2 guidance—despite $8.0 billion in H20-related revenue losses due to U.S.-China export restrictions—highlight its dominance in AI. Backtest data shows that following earnings beats, NVDA has a 62.5% chance of a short-term gain, rising to a 75% win rate over 30 days, with a maximum return of 2.9%.

A chart showing NVDA's revenue surging from $10.1 billion in Q2 2020 to $30.0 billion in Q2 2025, with a sharp acceleration post-2023 due to AI adoption.

Streaming Giants: Netflix's Resilience Amid Rate Hikes

Netflix's Q2 2025 results, also due on July 17, will test its ability to grow subscribers and pricing in an era of rising interest rates. The company has consistently defied macro skepticism, with Q1 2026 subscriber growth hitting 7.4 million—its best since 2021. Key metrics to watch:
- Subscription retention: Can NFLX maintain its 97% retention rate despite price hikes in key markets?
- Content performance: How did new releases (e.g., The Watch) and licensing deals contribute to engagement?
- International expansion: How is its push into emerging markets progressing?

Historical backtests indicate that while NFLX's 3-day post-earnings win rate is 50%, over 30 days it improves to 66.67%, with a maximum return of 1.5%, suggesting patience post-report could yield gains. A strong report could validate NFLX's thesis as a “recession-resistant” streaming leader, especially if its $16.99 price point continues to attract cost-conscious consumers.

Fed Policy and Geopolitics: Why Macro Noise Isn't Derailing Tech Yet

The Fed's reluctance to commit to a pause in rate hikes, coupled with ongoing U.S.-China trade disputes, has kept markets on edge. However, semiconductor and streaming stocks are proving resilient:
- TSMC's valuation remains elevated despite macro fears, reflecting investor confidence in its long-term AI chip demand.
- Netflix's stock has outperformed the S&P 500 by 20% year-to-date, signaling a shift toward “defensive” tech plays.

Geopolitical risks, such as export controls on NVDA's H20 chips to China, have hurt near-term margins but haven't derailed the AI narrative. Instead, companies are pivoting to new markets (e.g., Middle East partnerships) and diversifying supply chains.

Ferrari: A Luxury Indicator Pointing to Resilient Demand

Ferrari's stock has surged 35% in 2025, outperforming broader auto indices. This isn't just a play on EVs—it's a sentiment indicator for high-end consumer spending. Strong demand for its $3 million+ supercars suggests that luxury buyers remain confident, even as macro concerns linger. For investors, this bodes well for discretionary sectors tied to tech and media, where discretionary spending overlaps with premium content (e.g., Netflix's premium tier) and high-end hardware (e.g., NVDA's Blackwell GPUs).

Investment Thesis: Go Long on Catalysts, Not Macro Noise

1. Buy TSMC (TSM) near-term: Its Q2 results will likely confirm its AI-driven growth story. A positive Q3 outlook could push shares higher, especially if it reiterates 2025 revenue growth of ~15%. With an 87.5% short-term win rate following beats, investors may see immediate upside, bolstered by an 88.89% 30-day success rate.
2. Accumulate Netflix (NFLX) post-earnings: A beat on subscriber growth or pricing could catalyze a rally, especially if it reaffirms its $45 billion 2025 revenue target. Despite a 50% short-term win rate, NFLX shows a 66.67% win rate over a month, making accumulation after the report a strategic move.
3. Monitor NVDA's Q3 guidance: Despite H20 headwinds, its AI software stack (e.g., Blackwell) and data center dominance should keep margins expanding. Given a 62.5% short-term win rate and 75% over 30 days, monitoring the guidance could offer opportunities as the stock historically rebounds post-earnings.
4. Use Ferrari (RACE) as a contrarian indicator: A dip below $200 could signal buying opportunities in broader discretionary sectors.

Risks to Consider

• Fed policy shifts: A hawkish surprise in September could pressure valuations.
• Geopolitical flare-ups: New export curbs or trade disputes could disrupt supply chains.
• Streaming competition: Disney+ and Apple TV+ are intensifying the battle for subscriptions.

Conclusion

In a world where macro risks loom large, tech and media leaders like NVDA, TSM, and NFLX are proving that earnings-driven growth can outpace uncertainty. With Q2 results around the corner and Q3 guidance on the horizon, now is the time to position for these catalysts. Pair these bets with a small allocation to luxury plays like Ferrari to hedge against broader sentiment shifts. In investing, as in AI, the future belongs to those who focus on what's working—not what's worrying.

A chart showing NVDA outperforming the S&P 500 by over 400% since 2020, underscoring its resilience during macro turbulence.