On Semiconductor Outlook - A Mixed Picture Amid Market Volatility

Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: On Semiconductor (ON) faces technical neutrality with mixed signals, as recent price action shows a 3.62% rise but analysts remain neutral.

News Highlights

Recent news has painted a complex picture for the semiconductor industry. Notably:

• McKinsey Report on US Tariffs: New research from McKinsey highlights the uncertainty caused by US tariffs, which could affect global chip supply chains. This could indirectly impact On Semiconductor's operations and customer demand.
• SOXX ETF Outflow: The US Semiconductors ETF (SOXX) saw a $750M net outflow in May 2025, reflecting broader caution in the sector. This suggests investors are reassessing exposure to semiconductors, potentially impacting ON's market dynamics.
• Japan-US Cooperation Proposals: Japan and the US are working on proposals to strengthen cooperation in rare earths and semiconductors. This could help reduce reliance on China and stabilize supply chains, offering a longer-term positive outlook for semiconductor manufacturers like On.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

On Semiconductor is currently receiving a simple average analyst rating of 3.00 and a performance-weighted score of 1.65. The ratings are mixed, with only one neutral rating from B of A Securities’ Vivek Arya in recent days. Analysts have a historically moderate success rate, at just 50.0%, and the current market outlook does not align with the recent 3.62% price increase.

Key Fundamental Drivers

• Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company Shareholders / Net Profit: 100.73% (internal diagnostic score: 1.00)
• EV/EBIT: -43.19 (score: 1.00)
• Total Profit YoY Growth: -138.16% (score: 2.00)
• Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities YoY Growth: -8.63% (score: 2.00)
• Cash-MV: -0.85 (score: 2.00)

These scores highlight mixed financial health, with strong performance in net profit but weak growth in cash flow and profit. Investors should monitor the company's liquidity and margin stability closely.

Money-Flow Trends

Large-scale money flow shows a negative trend, with big-money players pulling back slightly. However, small investors are showing a positive trend, with a Small_inflow_ratio of 0.5037, suggesting retail optimism. The fund-flow score is 7.44, which is considered good by our internal metrics. This mixed flow could signal a potential turning point in investor sentiment if small investors continue to push the stock higher despite the bearish institutional stance.

Key Technical Signals

The technical outlook for On Semiconductor is neutral, with the market waiting for clarity. Here are the most recent signals and their internal diagnostic scores:

• WR Overbought: Internal diagnostic score: 1.76 – This suggests caution, as the stock is overbought but with a low score indicating limited upside potential.
• MACD Death Cross: Internal diagnostic score: 7.29 – A bearish signal with historically strong performance (66.67% win rate), suggesting a potential correction.
• Bearish Engulfing: Internal diagnostic score: 7.77 – A bearish reversal pattern with a strong historical win rate (77.78%), indicating downward momentum.
• MACD Golden Cross: Internal diagnostic score: 5.62 – A bullish signal, but with a more moderate win rate (56.25%), suggesting mixed momentum.

Recent chart patterns have been mixed. On 2025-09-10, a MACD Death Cross appeared. The next day, a MACD Golden Cross countered it. On 2025-09-16, a WR Overbought signal emerged. These conflicting signals reinforce the technical neutrality and uncertainty in the short term.

Conclusion

With a technical score of 5.61 and a mixed set of signals, On Semiconductor is best approached with caution. Investors should consider holding off on new positions until the market provides clearer direction. If the stock continues to consolidate and key indicators like the MACD Golden Cross re-emerge with stronger scores, it could signal a more bullish trend. For now, consider waiting for a pull-back or waiting for a clearer breakout pattern before committing capital.