On Semiconductor Gains 9.71% as Bullish Crossover and Candlestick Patterns Confirm Uptrend

On Semiconductor (ON) has rallied 3.33% in the most recent session, marking a three-day consecutive advance with a cumulative gain of 9.71%. The price action suggests a potential short-term bullish bias, supported by rising volume and a retest of key psychological levels.

Candlestick Theory

Recent candlestick patterns indicate a strong buying momentum. The three-day bullish trend features a "three white soldiers" formation, where each session closes near the high, suggesting institutional buying. Key support levels are evident at the 60.0–61.0 range, where the price has historically found buyers after dips. Resistance is forming around 65.50–66.00, coinciding with the 200-day moving average (calculated as ~65.40 based on the data). A breakout above 66.00 could target 68.00, aligning with prior resistance-turned-support.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day (approx. 63.20), 100-day (approx. 61.80), and 200-day (approx. 65.40) moving averages show a "bullish crossover" as the 50-day crosses above the 100-day. The price currently sits above all three, indicating a mid-term uptrend. However, the 200-day MA acts as a dynamic resistance, and a sustained close above it would confirm a shift in the trend. The 100-day MA may serve as a re-entry level if the price retraces.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has turned positive, with the line crossing above the signal line, signaling strengthening momentum. The KDJ oscillator (Stochastic) shows K at 80 and D at 75, entering overbought territory (~70 threshold). While this may suggest a short-term pullback, the divergence between K and D remains narrow, indicating buyers are still in control. A bearish crossover in KDJ could trigger a correction to the 62.00–63.00 zone.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded as the price trades near the upper Bollinger Band (~65.50), reflecting overbought conditions. The 20-period standard deviation shows a 1.5% widening, suggesting a potential mean reversion. If the price closes below the middle band (~63.50), the bands may contract, signaling a consolidation phase. The lower band (~61.00) remains a critical support area.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has surged to 13 million shares, a 30% increase from the prior session, validating the recent strength. The volume profile aligns with the price rise, indicating robust participation. However, a divergence in volume during future upmoves (e.g., lower volume on higher closes) could signal weakening momentum.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-period RSI stands at 68, nearing overbought territory. While this does not necessarily signal a reversal, it highlights caution for short-term traders. A close above 70 would suggest continued bullish momentum, but a failure to break 70 may lead to a retest of the 50–60 RSI range, corresponding to price levels of 61.00–63.00.

Fibonacci Retracement

Applying Fibonacci levels between the 2025-06-03 low (41.87) and the 2026-02-06 high (65.45), key retracement levels are at 55.10 (38.2%), 51.30 (50%), and 47.50 (61.8%). The current price of 65.2 sits near the 23.6% retracement level (~63.00), suggesting a possible continuation of the uptrend if buyers defend this area.

Confluence points include the alignment of the 50-day MA with Fibonacci 23.6% support at ~63.00 and the MACD’s bullish crossover. Divergences emerge in the KDJ oscillator, which may hint at near-term exhaustion. The price remains within a high-probability trade zone between 61.00 and 66.00, with the 200-day MA acting as a critical filter for trend continuation. A break below 61.00 would invalidate the bullish case, while a close above 66.00 could trigger a reacceleration toward 68.00.