On Semiconductor Extends Losses to 1.86% Amid Bearish Technical Signals

On Semiconductor (ON) declined 0.31% to $48.11 in the latest session, marking a second consecutive down day with a cumulative loss of 1.86% over this period. This retreat follows a brief recovery attempt earlier in the week, underscoring ongoing near-term pressure.
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions reveal consolidation near established support. The price action since the sharp drop to $47.79 (2025-09-03) shows a struggle to reclaim $49-$50, forming small-bodied candles like dojis and spinning tops. These patterns signal indecision near the $48 support level, aligning with the historical swing low. Resistance remains firm at $49.20-$49.50 (recent highs on 2025-09-10, 09-11). A confirmed break below $47.20 (September 2025 low) would signal bearish conviction.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA (approx. $51.25) and 100-day MA (approx. $54.80) slope downward decisively below the 200-day MA (approx. $55.60), confirming a long-term bearish trend. Current price action ($48.11) sits significantly below all key moving averages, reinforcing bearish dominance. This structure suggests persistent overhead supply, with any rallies likely facing resistance near the declining 50-day MA.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD likely remains below its signal line in negative territory, signaling sustained bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the KDJ oscillator shows potential oversold conditions; the %K line appears near or below 20, possibly attempting a bullish crossover with %D. This divergence—MACD maintaining bearishness versus KDJ hinting at oversold exhaustion—suggests caution. KDJ’s potential reversal signal requires price confirmation for reliability.
Bollinger Bands
Recent band contraction (narrowing width) culminated in a volatility expansion with the drop below $48.26 (2025-09-12). Price now trades near the lower band ($47.50-$47.80), indicating a potential oversold extreme. However, sustained trading near the lower band underscores current downward momentum. A move back toward the middle band ($49.50) could signal stabilization, while a breach below the lower band may trigger acceleration.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume trends validate bearish momentum. Significant distribution occurred during the breakdown from $56.82 to $47.97 (2025-08-01 to 08-04) on elevated volume. Recent pullbacks (e.g., September 8-9, 12, 15) occurred on above-average volume, confirming selling pressure. While volume faded slightly during the latest 2-day dip, it remains elevated relative to preceding consolidation periods, suggesting weak underlying demand.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI hovers near 44–46 (approximated using recent price closes), avoiding oversold (<30) territory. This neutral-moderate reading lacks clear oversold warning despite recent declines, implying room for further downside. Caution is warranted, as RSI can remain neutralized during strong trends, and oversold readings often occur late in selloffs. Current levels do not yet signal exhaustion.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the swing high of $62.45 (2025-07-22) and low of $31.95 (2025-04-08), key levels emerge. The 38.2% retracement (~$42.50) and 50% (~$47.20) levels acted as support earlier. Current price action sits near the 78.6% retracement at $48.05. A failure here risks a full retest of the April low near $32.00. Conversely, the 61.8% retracement at $44.20 offers major support if $48.05 fails. Significant resistance resides between $51.80 (50% retracement) and $54.50 (38.2%).
Confluence & Divergences
Confluence exists near $47.20–$48.00, combining Fibonacci support, recent candle support lows, and the Bollinger lower band. A breakdown here could trigger accelerated selling. A notable divergence exists: KDJ hints at short-term oversold/rebound potential, while RSI and MACD lack equivalent reversal signals, suggesting caution in expecting a sustained bounce. Volume confirms selling pressure during declines but has not yet signaled capitulation.
Overall, On Semiconductor exhibits a firmly bearish technical posture. While short-term oversold indicators (KDJ, Bollinger proximity) might support a technical bounce near $47.20-$48.00, the weight of evidence—sustained trading below key MAs, RSI neutrality, volume-backed breakdowns, and significant overhead resistance zones—suggests the path of least resistance remains downward. A decisive break below $47.20 could target $44.20 (Fibonacci 61.8%) next. Reversing the bearish structure requires reclaiming the 50-day MA (~$51.25) with conviction.