Why Selling XRP in a Downturn Is a Strategic Mistake for Long-Term Investors

In the current bearish phase of the cryptocurrency market, XRP's price action presents a compelling case for long-term investors to resist the urge to sell. Despite short-term volatility, technical and on-chain data suggest that the asset is poised for a significant relief rally, making an exit now a counterproductive move. Historical bull-case fundamentals, coupled with waning selling pressure and consolidation patterns, underscore the risks of exiting a position that appears to be at a critical inflection point.

Technical Analysis: Consolidation as a Precursor to Breakout

XRP is currently trading within a well-defined descending channel, with the $1.80–$2.00 zone acting as a critical support level. This resilience indicates strong buying interest at these levels, and a breakdown below this floor would require a forceful rejection of the established support-a scenario that has yet to materialize. Concurrently, the asset is forming a descending triangle, a bullish pattern that historically signals the waning of bearish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) further reinforces this narrative, showing bullish divergence as price lows have occurred with higher RSI values, hinting at a potential reversal.

Analysts emphasize that such consolidation phases are essential for building robust support layers, which often underpin explosive advances once the market resets according to technical analysis. For instance, a breakout above key resistance levels like $2.44 and $2.59 could trigger a retesting of the $2.85 price target predicted by some experts for December 2025. Selling during this consolidation would not only ignore the technical setup but also risk missing a potential catalyst for a multi-month rally.

On-Chain Metrics: Waning Selling Pressure and Accumulation Trends

On-chain data provides further evidence that XRP's bearish phase is nearing exhaustion. A persistent net outflow of XRP from exchanges since 2025 suggests that major holders are accumulating the asset at strategic levels. This trend typically tightens liquidity on exchanges, reducing downward pressure and amplifying upside potential if demand surges.

Historical on-chain metrics also highlight a sharp decline in selling pressure. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for short-term holders has reached a one-year low of –0.20, while long-term holder NUPL has fallen to a six-month low of 0.53. These levels mirror previous market bottoms, such as the 74% rally observed after a similar NUPL trough in June 2024. Additionally, death crossovers in moving averages-a bearish signal-have already completed, signaling the end of a prolonged downtrend.

The RSI's hidden bullish divergence further corroborates this narrative, suggesting that the correction may be ending and that XRP's underlying uptrend could resume. For long-term investors, these metrics collectively indicate that the market is nearing a point where selling pressure will no longer dictate price action.

Fundamentals: Institutional Adoption and Legal Clarity

While technical and on-chain indicators are persuasive, XRP's long-term potential is also anchored by strengthening fundamentals. Ripple's resolution of its legal dispute with the SEC has removed a major overhang, enabling institutional inflows through spot XRP ETFs. These inflows, combined with the asset's expanding role in cross-border payments, tokenized assets, and stablecoin initiatives, suggest that XRP's price has not yet fully reflected its adoption metrics according to market analysis.

Moreover, 41.5% of XRP's supply remains at a realized loss, and increased profit-taking by long-term holders could further stabilize the market according to market analysis. Analysts argue that these factors, alongside Ripple's growing banking footprint, position XRP for a re-rating as institutional demand accelerates according to market analysis. Selling during a downturn would ignore these structural tailwinds and risk locking in losses at a time when the asset's intrinsic value is being redefined.

Conclusion: Strategic Patience Over Premature Exit

For long-term investors, the case against selling XRP during the current downturn is clear. Technical consolidation, waning on-chain selling pressure, and robust fundamentals all point to a market nearing a critical inflection point. Exiting now would contradict historical bull-case patterns and potentially undermine future upside potential. As XRP approaches key support and resistance levels, strategic patience-rather than panic-will be the hallmark of a sound investment approach.