Sei/Yen Market Overview for 2025-11-09

Summary
• Price opened at 27.54 and closed at 27.80, with a high of 28.21 and a low of 26.37.
• Volume spiked in early morning ET, but price remained volatile and range-bound for much of the session.
• Momentum turned bullish after 2:00 PM ET, with a strong breakout above 27.94.
• Key support levels at 26.61 and 27.03 were tested, while resistance held at 28.0–28.1.
• RSI moved from oversold territory to overbought, suggesting a possible reversal or consolidation.

Price Action and Structure

Sei/Yen (SEIJPY) experienced a volatile 24-hour session, bouncing between key support levels at 26.61 and 27.03, and testing resistance between 27.94 and 28.10. A strong bullish trend emerged post-2:00 PM ET, marked by a bullish engulfing pattern and a breakout above 27.94. The price closed at 27.80, up from an opening of 27.54, and traded as low as 26.37 and as high as 28.21. The formation of multiple small bullish patterns, including doji near key levels and a confirmed engulfing pattern, suggests possible exhaustion of bearish momentum and a potential shift toward buyers' control.

Technical Indicators and Trends

The 15-minute chart shows the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed in a bullish direction, supporting the recent rally. The 200-period MA on the daily chart remains above current levels, indicating a broader bearish trend. MACD has shown a strong positive crossover and rising bars, confirming the recent strength. RSI has moved into overbought territory (above 70) after an initial dip into oversold levels, suggesting a possible consolidation or short-term correction. Volatility expanded significantly as the price moved from 26.37 to 28.21, with the upper Bollinger Band reaching as high as 28.10.

Volume and Turnover Insights

The 24-hour volume was significant, totaling 389,163 contracts, with the highest turnover occurring in the early morning hours and again post-2:00 PM ET. Notably, the largest single candle had 77,477 contracts, occurring around 3:00 AM ET, during a sharp drop from 26.76 to 26.62. This suggests a possible liquidation or large institutional activity. The bullish candle at 2:00 PM ET had high volume and closed near the upper shadow, indicating strong conviction among buyers. Divergence between price and volume was observed in the early morning hours, suggesting a potential false break.

Key Levels and Retracements

Fibonacci retracements on the 15-minute move from 26.37 to 28.21 show key levels at 26.98 (38.2%), 27.29 (50%), and 27.60 (61.8%). Price briefly retested the 50% level and held above it, suggesting possible continued bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the prior downtrend from 28.0 to 26.61 is at 27.08, which was tested but not broken. The recent low at 26.37 may now act as a critical support level if the pair consolidates or corrects.

Backtest Hypothesis

The bullish engulfing pattern observed during the 2:00 PM ET candle is a key setup for potential strategy testing. A signal generated at the open of the following candle (2:15 PM) and held for 5 trading days could serve as a test of entry timing and risk-reward ratios. Using the SEIJPY pair, this pattern could be tested for consistency in a broader set of similar setups, such as those observed in early morning and late afternoon sessions. If extended to other pairs, the pattern could be cross-validated against a larger dataset.