Sei Surges 40% in Week Amid $20 Million Token Unlock

Sei, a prominent cryptocurrency, has surged past $0.35, marking its highest point in six months. This rally comes as a $20 million token unlock approaches, which has raised questions about the sustainability of these gains. The on-chain growth has been a significant driver of this rally, but the impending token unlock poses potential risks. The unlocking of a substantial amount of tokens could lead to increased selling pressure, which might affect the price of Sei. Investors and analysts are closely monitoring the situation to see if Sei can maintain its recent gains in the face of this upcoming event.

The surge in Sei's price, which has climbed nearly 40% in the past week and doubled over the past month, has brought fresh attention to the layer-1 blockchain. This price increase has been supported by sharp gains in on-chain and market activity. According to data, Sei’s total value locked has jumped from around $200 million in January to $661 million, a more than 230% increase. The protocol’s TVL briefly reached an all-time high of $673 million and has remained near those levels, with much of the liquidity anchored in Yei Finance, which currently accounts for $366 million. Decentralized exchange volumes are also on the rise, averaging $65 million over the past five days, reflecting stronger trader engagement on Sei-based platforms. At the same time, market cap has risen to over $2 billion, suggesting growing capital inflows despite the asset still being down 69% from its all-time high of $1.14 set in March 2024.

This wave of momentum now faces a potential inflection point. On July 15, Sei will unlock 55.56 million SEI tokens, or about $20 million. Even though this only accounts for just under 1% of the current circulating supply, token unlocks can affect short-term sentiment and increase selling pressure if recipients decide to take profits. Traders will be watching closely to see how the market absorbs the new supply.

On the technical side, Sei is still trading in a strong uptrend and is holding above the upper Bollinger Band. At 70.4, the relative strength index is just outside of overbought territory. All of the major moving averages on both short- and long-term timeframes are flashing buy signals, and the momentum and MACD indicators are still bullish. However, the commodity channel index has moved into a high-risk area, indicating that there may be a short-term overextension of the token, which may result in a pullback. While there’s no immediate reversal signal, any shift in sentiment around the unlock could trigger a cooldown.

Sei may try to run toward $0.40 or higher if it breaks clear above $0.36 with increasing volume. The bullish setup would be weakened by a rejection and a close back below $0.33, which might allow for short-term profit-taking. The upcoming token unlock is a critical event that could determine the future trajectory of Sei's price. If the market can absorb the new supply without significant selling pressure, Sei could continue its upward trend. However, if the unlock leads to increased selling, it could result in a pullback and potential profit-taking by investors.