Sei (SEI) Faces Bearish Crossroads: Technical and On-Chain Signals Signal Potential for Further Downside in 2025

The Sei (SEI) blockchain, once a breakout performer in 2024, now finds itself at a critical juncture as bearish technical patterns and on-chain metrics converge to suggest further downside potential. While the network has demonstrated robust transactional growth and institutional adoption, recent price action and sentiment indicators paint a cautionary picture for investors. This analysis synthesizes technical, on-chain, and sentiment data to evaluate the risks of a prolonged bearish phase for SEI.

Technical Analysis: Symmetrical Triangle and Descending Channel Signal Weakness

SEI is currently consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern, bounded by resistance at $0.31 and support at $0.2710, according to a Market Periodical report. This pattern, while neutral in nature, often precedes a decisive breakout or breakdown. However, the failure to breach the $0.31 resistance level-despite surging on-chain activity-suggests waning bullish momentum. A breakdown below the $0.2710 support could trigger a cascade to $0.25, with further declines potentially targeting $0.17 if the price falls into a descending channel, per an OKX analysis.

Technical indicators reinforce this bearish bias. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near oversold conditions, signaling fragile price resilience, according to a CCN analysis. Historically, RSI-oversold entry points for SEI have yielded mixed outcomes: while such signals can generate positive returns over 30-day holding periods, they also come with significant drawdowns and moderate risk-adjusted returns. This underscores the importance of combining RSI signals with broader technical and on-chain context. Additionally, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has turned negative, reflecting outflows from key accumulation zones, the Market Periodical report observed. These metrics collectively suggest that SEI's short-term trajectory is vulnerable to further declines.

On-Chain Signals: TVL Deterioration and NVT Ratio Suggest Structural Weakness

On-chain data reveals mixed signals. While daily transactions have surged to 5.7 million and active wallets exceed 616,000, the Market Periodical report highlighted this uptick while also noting that Total Value Locked (TVL) has contracted by 17.6% year-to-date, settling at $535.1 million. This divergence between usage and valuation is a red flag, as TVL typically reflects the network's utility and investor confidence.

The Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio-a critical metric for assessing blockchain valuations-further underscores bearish implications. Although SEI's NVT ratio is not explicitly quantified in recent reports, CCN noted that its low valuation relative to transaction volume (observed in institutional analyses) suggests the token may be undervalued. However, this metric must be interpreted cautiously: a low NVT can indicate either undervaluation or weak demand. Given the current bearish context, the latter interpretation appears more plausible. Large holder activity also raises concerns. Despite a 36% surge in spot inflows ($2.19 million) and bridged net inflows of $3 million, the Market Periodical coverage shows these movements have not translated into sustained price gains. Instead, they highlight speculative inflows that could reverse rapidly in a downturn. Exchange outflows, meanwhile, remain muted, indicating limited short-term selling pressure but also a lack of strong bullish conviction.

Market Sentiment: Fear & Greed Index and Bearish Projections Confirm Pessimism

Market sentiment for SEI is overwhelmingly bearish. The Fear & Greed Index, a gauge of investor psychology, scores 49 (neutral) as of October 2025, according to a Changelly forecast, but this masks a 66% bearish sentiment reading from on-chain analytics reported by Changelly. Projections from multiple sources suggest a -19.65% decline to $0.196 by October 14, 2025, per Changelly, with some models forecasting a drop to $0.13 in 2025, as noted in the OKX analysis. These targets align with the descending channel and symmetrical triangle breakdown scenarios.

The CCN Strength Index, which measures momentum relative to peers, further underscores SEI's underperformance. With a score of 31.6 (reported in the OKX piece), SEI lags behind blockchains like TIA and DYM, amplifying concerns about its competitive positioning.

Implications for Investors: Managing Risk in a Bearish Scenario

For investors, the confluence of technical, on-chain, and sentiment signals suggests a high probability of further downside. Key price levels to monitor include:
- $0.2710: A breakdown below this level could accelerate the decline to $0.25.
- $0.17: A critical support zone where short-term buyers may emerge.
- $0.13: A long-term bearish target if the Giga upgrade fails to catalyze demand.

While bullish scenarios (e.g., a breakout to $0.36 or $0.52) remain possible, they require a sustained reversal in sentiment and on-chain activity. Investors should consider hedging positions or adopting a wait-and-see approach until the triangle resolves or the NVT ratio stabilizes.

Conclusion

Sei (SEI) faces a bearish crossroads in 2025, with technical patterns, on-chain metrics, and sentiment indicators all pointing to further downside. While the network's institutional-grade infrastructure and Giga upgrade offer long-term potential, the immediate outlook remains precarious. Investors must remain vigilant, as a breakdown below key support levels could trigger a sharp correction.```