SEI's Path to Revaluation: Is Network Adoption Outpacing Price Action?

The crypto market has long been a theater of contradictions, where fundamentals and price action often diverge. Sei (SEI) in late 2025 exemplifies this tension. On one hand, the network's on-chain adoption metrics are surging, with daily active addresses and transaction volumes hitting record highs. On the other, its price remains trapped in a bearish consolidation phase. This article examines whether SEI's growing adoption can catalyze a revaluation, or if technical support levels and broader market conditions will continue to suppress its price.

On-Chain Adoption: A Story of Explosive Growth

Sei's Q3 2025 performance has been nothing short of remarkable. Daily active addresses on the network jumped 93.5% quarter-over-quarter, reaching 824,000, driven largely by gaming applications like Token Tails and Match Fighters. According to reports, these games alone generated 116 million transactions, with over 500,000 unique wallets participating daily. Decentralized exchange (DEX) volume also spiked by 75% to $43 million, with DragonSwap dominating at $13.2 million in daily volume. Research indicates this growth pattern is sustained.

User growth metrics further underscore this momentum. The network now boasts 86.11 million subscribers, with more than 100,000 new users joining daily. According to analyst data, this compounding adoption suggests a network effect taking hold, where increased usage could eventually translate into higher capital inflows. However, total value locked (TVL) has declined by 25%, highlighting a critical disconnect between user activity and capital stickiness. This trend is particularly notable, suggesting a potential imbalance in user behavior.

Technical Support Levels: A Bearish Floor or a Catalyst?

Despite the robust on-chain activity, SEI's price action tells a different story. As of December 2025, the token trades around $0.1095, having failed to reclaim the $0.12 resistance level. Market analysis shows this resistance has remained unbroken despite strong on-chain metrics. Technical indicators paint a bearish picture: the RSI (14) at 42.93 signals downward momentum, and the Fear & Greed Index sits at an extreme fear level of 23, reflecting cautious investor sentiment. This sentiment is supported by recent trading patterns.

Key support levels have become critical battlegrounds. The $0.1075 (S1) and $0.1041 (S2) levels have historically acted as floors, with the strongest support at $0.1019 (S3). Analysts flag these levels as critical, with a break below $0.1075 potentially triggering algorithmic selling. A break below $0.1075 could push the price toward $0.10. Conversely, a rebound above $0.1155-a level last tested in Q3-could reignite bullish momentum, potentially propelling the price toward $0.12 and beyond. This level has been a key target for traders.

Divergence Between Adoption and Price: A Double-Edged Sword

The most intriguing aspect of SEI's 2025 trajectory is the divergence between its on-chain metrics and price action. While DEX volume surged beyond $400 million in two weeks and derivatives positioning exploded by 19,527% over 90 days, the token's price remained stagnant. This divergence suggests traders are positioning for future volatility rather than reacting to current weakness.

This divergence could be a double-edged sword. On one hand, it indicates that market participants are betting on Sei's long-term utility, particularly in gaming and institutional infrastructure (e.g., Wormhole's Market Infrastructure Grid integration). According to market analysis, this suggests confidence in future adoption. On the other, it highlights a lack of immediate capital inflows to sustain price appreciation. The challenge for SEI lies in converting its user base into liquidity providers and TVL contributors-a hurdle that could delay revaluation.

The Path Forward: Revaluation or Stagnation?

For SEI to break free of its bearish confines, two conditions must align:
1. Stronger On-Chain Stickiness: The network must convert its 86 million users into capital contributors. This requires deeper integrations with DeFi protocols and institutional infrastructure to drive TVL growth.
2. Technical Breakouts: A sustained move above $0.1155 could trigger a wave of longs, while a failure to hold $0.1075 would likely deepen the downtrend.

Analysts remain cautiously optimistic. Price predictions suggest the price could target $0.18–$0.25 or even $0.30–$0.45. However, this hinges on broader market conditions, including Bitcoin's dominance and macroeconomic stability.

Conclusion

SEI's journey in 2025 underscores a broader theme in crypto: the lag between utility and price. While the network's adoption metrics are undeniably strong, the price remains anchored by technical support levels and weak altcoin sentiment. For investors, the key question is whether this divergence will resolve in favor of revaluation or persist as a cautionary tale of disconnected fundamentals. The answer may lie in how effectively Sei can bridge the gap between user growth and capital deployment in the coming months.