SEI's Critical Support and Trendline Break: A Tactical Reentry Play in a Volatile Market

The Sei (SEI) token has entered a pivotal phase in its 2025 price action, with the asset now trading near key structural support levels and exhibiting early signs of a potential trend reversal. After a nearly 70% year-to-date decline, the market is at a crossroads, where the next move-up or down-could redefine short-term sentiment and unlock reentry opportunities for strategic investors.

Critical Support Levels: The $0.13–$0.15 Floor

SEI's current price action is heavily influenced by its proximity to the $0.13–$0.15 support zone, a level analysts describe as a "crucial structural floor" for short-term recovery hopes. This area has historically acted as a magnet for buying pressure, with on-chain data suggesting that institutional and retail investors alike are accumulating at these levels. A breakdown below $0.13 would likely reaffirm the bearish trend, potentially dragging the price toward the $0.09–$0.10 retest zone. Conversely, a successful defense of this support could trigger a countertrend rally, with the $0.18–$0.22 range acting as the next immediate target.

Technical indicators provide mixed signals. The Supertrend line remains above price, reinforcing the bearish bias, while the MACD hovers near zero, signaling weak momentum. However, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has recently crossed above the zero line, indicating a shift in buying pressure. This divergence between volume-based indicators and trend-following tools suggests a potential inflection point, where the market may pivot from capitulation to accumulation.

Trendline Breakout Potential in December 2025

December 2025 has emerged as a critical month for SEI, with the token approaching the upper boundary of a descending channel. A breakout above this trendline-currently aligned with the $0.15–$0.16 range-could invalidate the bearish structure and open the door to a $0.18–$0.22 rally. Analysts at CCN highlight that the MACD's recent crossover and CMF's bullish signal create a "buy signal" for traders positioning for a short-term reversal.

However, the broader trend remains cautious. The CCN Strength Index currently rates SEI at 46.2, underscoring weak momentum, while the SEI Market Cap to TVL ratio of 2.35 suggests the token is overvalued relative to its on-chain activity. These metrics imply that any upward move will require sustained buying pressure to overcome lingering bearish sentiment.

Strategic Reentry Opportunities

For investors considering reentry, the $0.13–$0.15 support zone offers a high-probability setup. A bullish breakout above the Supertrend line and $0.15 resistance could trigger a short-term rally, with $0.18 and $0.22 as key targets. Positioning here would align with the CMF's bullish divergence and the tightening volatility range observed in recent weeks.

Conversely, a breakdown below $0.13 would likely force the price toward the $0.09–$0.10 zone, where a second test of the structural floor could create a low-risk entry for long-term buyers. Historical data from VentureBurn indicates that such a retest is a prerequisite for a meaningful 2026 recovery.

Long-Term Outlook and 2026 Projections

While the immediate focus remains on short-term dynamics, bullish forecasts for 2026 suggest a potential price recovery to $0.11–$0.75, contingent on the token's ability to consolidate at the bottom. A successful breakout above $0.22 in late 2025 could accelerate this timeline, with $0.34 emerging as a key psychological level to watch.

Conclusion

SEI's current positioning near critical support levels and its early signs of trendline breakout create a compelling case for tactical reentry. While the broader bearish bias persists, the interplay between CMF, MACD, and on-chain accumulation suggests a potential reversal is on the horizon. Investors who can navigate the volatility and time their entries around the $0.13–$0.15 zone may find themselves well-positioned for a short-term rally-or a longer-term recovery.