SEI's Accumulation and Volume Surge: A Pre-Breakout Opportunity in Late 2025

In late 2025, the Sei (SEI) network has emerged as a compelling case study in market divergence, where on-chain activity and technical indicators suggest a potential pre-breakout scenario despite the asset's stagnant price. With daily active addresses surging to 1.4 million-a 75% increase from Q3 2025-and decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes exceeding $400 million in two weeks, the ecosystem is demonstrating robust fundamentals at a price level far below its all-time high. This divergence between usage and valuation has sparked renewed interest among investors, positioning SEI as a candidate for a significant upward correction.

On-Chain Metrics Signal Accumulation Amid Stagnant Pricing

The Sei Network's on-chain footprint has expanded dramatically, with derivatives markets reflecting aggressive positioning. Perpetual futures volume surged 19,527% over 90 days, underscoring trader confidence in future price appreciation. Meanwhile, spot trading volume on the network reached $4.6 billion in a single quarter, driven by institutional adoption and high-frequency trading initiatives. These figures contrast sharply with SEI's price action, which has remained trapped near $0.12, a level that fails to reflect the network's growing utility.

The surge in DEX activity further reinforces this narrative. In the last 24 hours, DEX volume hit $34.08 million, with a 50.75% weekly increase, indicating heightened retail and institutional participation in on-chain trading. This trend aligns with broader market dynamics, where decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols like Takara Lend are driving user growth. The network's DEX vs. CEX dominance ratio of 0.17% also highlights its niche but expanding role in the decentralized trading ecosystem.

Technical Divergence and Weak Bearish Momentum

From a technical perspective, SEI's price action reveals a classic accumulation pattern. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 59, a neutral level that suggests the asset is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for upward movement. More critically, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned positive for the first time since late December 2025, while the MACD line remains slightly below the signal line. This configuration indicates fading bearish momentum, as sellers appear to be losing strength.

Price consolidation near the $0.14–$0.15 support zone has become a focal point for analysts. Holding this level is seen as crucial for maintaining short-term recovery hopes, with a decisive break above $0.20 viewed as the key threshold for unlocking broader upside potential. However, the asset remains below its exponential moving average (EMA) ribbon, a technical pressure zone that keeps downside risks open toward $0.1216. This divergence between on-chain strength and technical weakness creates a high-probability setup for a breakout, provided the network can sustain its current momentum.

Institutional Adoption and Ecosystem Developments

SEI's potential as a pre-breakout candidate is further bolstered by institutional adoption and ecosystem upgrades. The removal of transaction fees to incentivize high-frequency trading has already attracted significant capital, while the upcoming Giga upgrade- targeting 200,000 transactions per second (TPS) and sub-400ms finality-positions the network for scalability-driven growth. Additionally, SEI's inclusion in regulated financial products like the CoinShares Staked SEI ETP and Kalshi's prediction market underscores its growing legitimacy in traditional finance circles.

Despite these positives, challenges persist. A 55.56M token unlock in January 2026 could introduce selling pressure, and the TVL-to-market-cap ratio of 2.35 suggests the asset is currently overvalued relative to its on-chain usage. These risks highlight the importance of monitoring both technical and on-chain signals as the market approaches critical inflection points.

Conclusion: A High-Conviction Setup for 2026

SEI's accumulation phase in late 2025 mirrors historical patterns seen in assets like Binance Coin before major price expansions. The combination of surging DEX volumes, aggressive derivatives positioning, and fading bearish momentum creates a compelling case for a breakout. However, success will depend on the network's ability to execute its Giga upgrade and maintain institutional interest while navigating the looming token unlock. For investors with a medium-term horizon, SEI represents a high-conviction opportunity where fundamentals and technical indicators are aligning for a potential reversal.