Seer, Inc.'s Q1 Surge: Revenue Beat Signals Turnaround, But Can Losses Be Sustained?

The proteomics pioneer Seer, Inc. (SEER) delivered a Q1 2025 revenue beat, reporting $4.2 million in sales—a 37% year-over-year jump—amid sustained net losses. The question for investors is: Does this top-line momentum reflect a structural shift toward market traction, or is it a fleeting victory in a prolonged battle against operational inefficiencies? With shares surging 10% post-earnings but still trading at a fraction of their 2022 highs, the answer could determine whether SEER’s stock is a contrarian buy or a value trap.

Revenue Growth: A Durable Traction or One-Time Boost?

Seer’s revenue gain was driven by three key factors:
1. Instrument Shipments: The company sold as many Proteograph systems in Q1 2025 as it did in all of 2024. Half of these sales came from customers who first engaged via its SEER Technology Access Center (STAT) program—a compelling sign of product adoption.
2. Service Revenue Surge: STAT projects contributed $1.2 million, with 50% of Q1 STAT customers being new users. This “freemium” model converts trial users into instrument buyers, creating a flywheel effect.
3. Strategic Partnerships: The co-marketing deal with Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) to pair Proteograph with Orbitrap mass spectrometers is a game-changer. Training of Thermo’s salesforce is complete, and European expansion is underway, positioning Seer to tap into TMO’s global reach.

Crucially, the 49% gross margin—up from 44% in Q1 2024—hints at improved efficiency. The long-term target of 70–75% margins at scale suggests there’s room to grow, especially as higher-margin service revenue scales.

Loss Drivers: R&D Costs vs. Path to Profitability

Despite revenue growth, Seer’s net loss widened to $19.9 million, driven by:
- Persistent R&D Spending: $11.4 million in Q1, down 7% year-over-year but still a drag. Management argues this is an investment in expanding the Proteograph’s capabilities (e.g., new cell lysate protocols).
- Operational Costs: SG&A expenses fell 20% to $11.4 million, thanks to reduced stock-based compensation. However, lab expenses remain elevated, reflecting the complexity of proteomics workflows.

The key question is: Can revenue growth outpace losses? Management aims to achieve cash flow breakeven with its $285 million cash war chest. However, free cash flow losses are projected at $40–45 million in 2025, suggesting breakeven is years away.

The Bull Case: Mispriced for Long-Term Potential

Bulls argue that Seer’s stock is deeply undervalued given its strategic assets:
- Technology Leadership: The Proteograph’s ability to analyze >10,000 proteins in a single sample is unmatched, with 42 peer-reviewed publications validating its utility.
- Market Opportunity: The proteomics market is projected to grow at 12% CAGR to $13 billion by 2030. Seer’s 10,000-sample study with Discovery Life Sciences signals scalability for population-level proteomics—a first in the field.
- Margin Leverage: At $18 million annual revenue (the midpoint of 2025 guidance), Seer could generate $8–9 million in gross profit. Doubling revenue to $36 million would theoretically push gross profit to $25–27 million, assuming margins improve to 70%.

Bear Case: Headwinds and Execution Risks

Bears cite three critical concerns:
1. Macroeconomic Vulnerabilities: 30% of revenue comes from academic/government customers, which face NIH budget delays and funding cuts.
2. Regulatory Constraints: The Proteograph remains limited to “research use only,” blocking clinical diagnostics revenue—a major untapped market.
3. Valuation Squeeze: While the stock trades at a low $0.65 per share, the path to profitability requires sustained top-line growth amid a volatile cash burn rate.

Investment Thesis: A Contrarian Play on Proteomics’s Next Frontier

Seer’s Q1 results mark a critical inflection point. The revenue beat and margin expansion suggest the company is finally scaling its technology platform. While losses are still large, the $285 million cash pile buys time to execute on:
- Partnership Synergy: Leveraging Thermo Fisher’s salesforce to boost instrument sales.
- Margin Scaling: Increasing STAT conversions and high-margin service projects.
- Market Penetration: Expanding into clinical research (e.g., drug discovery collaborations) to diversify revenue streams.

At current prices, Seer is priced for failure—but its proteomics platform is a rare asset in a growing field. For investors with a 3–5 year horizon, this is a compelling opportunity to bet on a structural shift in life sciences data generation.

Final Take: Buy the Dip, But Watch for These Triggers

• Buy Signal: A sequential revenue beat in Q2 2025 and signs of margin expansion beyond 50%.
• Sell Signal: A collapse in STAT conversions or delays in the Thermo Fisher partnership.
• Hold Signal: Stagnant instrument shipments or macro-driven order cancellations.

The verdict: Seer’s Q1 beat is no blip—it’s a step toward proving its proteomics platform’s commercial viability. For long-term investors willing to endure volatility, this could be a generational call on the next wave of biological data innovation.