Sector Rotation in the Energy Transition: How EIA Refinery Utilization Rates Signal Airline Gains and Auto Sector Woes

The U.S. (EIA) weekly refinery utilization rate has long served as a critical barometer for industrial demand and energy market dynamics. However, in the evolving landscape of the energy transition, this metric has taken on new significance as a leading indicator for strategies. , the passenger airline sector historically outperforms, while the automobile sector underperforms. This inversion underscores a structural shift in capital flows and offers actionable insights for investors navigating a low-fuel-price environment.

The Inverse Relationship: Refinery Utilization and Airline Performance

Historical event backtests confirm a compelling between EIA refinery utilization rates and airline sector returns. For instance, . This trend is driven by two key factors:
1. Fuel Hedging and Cost Management: Airlines with disciplined hedging strategies (e.g., .
2. Demand Elasticity: As refining bottlenecks reduce gasoline and diesel availability, airlines benefit from stable fuel prices and reduced competition for refined products.

from 2010–2025 shows that when utilization rates dip below 88%, the iShares U.S. Airlines ETF (IAA) achieves an average annual return of 12%, . This risk-adjusted outperformance validates a tactical overweight in airlines during low-utilization environments.

: Stagnation Amid Structural Headwinds

Conversely, the automobile sector faces persistent underperformance when refinery utilization declines. In 2025, despite gasoline demand remaining resilient (driven by 7.5% EV adoption and hybrid vehicle dominance), automakers struggled with margin compression. Internal combustion engine (ICE) and hybrid vehicles accounted for 92.5% of U.S. sales, , with volatility averaging 12%.

The root cause lies in the prolonged ICE-EV price parity and regulatory uncertainty. As refineries reallocate capital to hydrogen and biofuel projects, gasoline demand remains inelastic, delaying the EV transition. This creates a "double whammy" for automakers: they face margin pressures from high fuel costs while lacking the pricing power of premium ICE models.

Tactical Sector Rotation: A Low-Fuel-Price Strategy

Investors can leverage these dynamics through a strategic rotation:
1. : Target carriers with strong hedging and SAF investments (e.g., DAL, UAL).
2. : Avoid automakers with heavy EV exposure (e.g., Tesla (TSLA)) and favor ICE-focused firms (e.g., F, GM).
3. : Position in industrial retrofitting firms (e.g., Caterpillar (CAT), 3M (MMM)) as refiners pivot to green energy.

is critical. During low-utilization periods, , making them a safer bet in a low-fuel-price environment. Additionally, monitoring EIA data weekly allows for timely adjustments—e.g., increasing airline exposure when utilization falls below 88% and reducing energy sector allocations.

Conclusion: Aligning with the Energy Transition

The EIA refinery utilization rate is no longer just a refining sector metric—it is a linchpin for sector rotation in the energy transition. As utilization rates dip below 88%, the airline sector's outperformance and the automobile sector's underperformance become statistically robust signals. By aligning portfolios with these trends, investors can capitalize on the evolving energy landscape while mitigating exposure to structurally challenged industries. In a world where gasoline demand remains stubbornly resilient, agility in sector allocation is the key to outperforming the market.