Secret/Bitcoin (SCRTBTC) Market Overview: Volatility Rises as Bulls Break Key Resistance

• Secret/Bitcoin (SCRTBTC) rallied sharply in late ET hours, closing above a key resistance level of 1.68e-6.
• Momentum accelerated after 7:30 AM ET with high volume and strong bullish candle formations.
• Bollinger Bands expanded in the final 6 hours, signaling increased volatility and trend continuation potential.
• RSI entered overbought territory after 8:15 AM ET, suggesting potential pullback unless bullish momentum holds.
• 24-hour volume surged 38% above the prior 24 hours, with high notional turnover in the final 8 hours.

At 12:00 PM ET on 2025-10-12, SCRTBTC opened at 1.71e-6, reached a high of 1.74e-6, a low of 1.5e-6, and closed at 1.71e-6. Total 24-hour volume was 536,719.9, and notional turnover (in base currency) was 845.7. A sharp late-ET rebound capped a volatile session with significant range expansion and increased liquidity activity.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern revealed a large bullish reversal at the session's close, with a strong bearish engulfing pattern earlier in the day signaling a failed short-term selloff. A doji at 1.65e-6 in the morning suggested indecision, but strong volume in the final 8 hours broke above key resistance at 1.68e-6. Price action suggests a potential continuation of the bullish trend if 1.67e-6 holds as a support level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed above the 20SMA (1.7e-6) and the 50SMA (1.68e-6), confirming a bullish bias. On a daily timeframe, price is currently above the 50DMA (1.65e-6) and approaching the 100DMA (1.63e-6), suggesting a continuation of the longer-term uptrend if the 200DMA (1.6e-6) holds.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line in the early morning hours, confirming bullish momentum. RSI reached overbought levels (70+) in the early hours of the morning, suggesting a potential short-term correction. However, the strong volume and price action in the final 6 hours suggest the bulls are in control, and a breakout above 1.75e-6 could trigger further buying.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly in the final 8 hours, with price staying above the upper band for a brief period before consolidating near it. This expansion indicates rising volatility and a potential continuation of the upward move. A breakdown below the middle band (1.7e-6) would signal increased bearish pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the final 8 hours of the session, with high liquidity at key resistance levels. Notional turnover also spiked, confirming the strength of the bullish move. There was no notable divergence between price and turnover during the rally, suggesting the move is genuine and not a volume-driven illusion.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% retracement level (1.67e-6) was successfully defended and then surpassed. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement level (1.65e-6) coincides with strong support, and price is now approaching the 61.8% retracement level (1.68e-6). A break above this level could trigger a retest of the prior high of 1.74e-6.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering long positions when the 20SMA crosses above the 50SMA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed below the most recent 1.5% swing low. The entry is confirmed with a close above the upper Bollinger Band and a RSI reading below 30. Given today’s pattern, a long entry would have been triggered after 7:30 AM ET, aligning well with the breakout. Exit signals are triggered when RSI enters overbought territory (70+) or when price closes below the 50SMA. A trailing stop could be used to secure gains as the trend progresses.