Secret/Bitcoin Market Overview

• Price tested key support and rebounded amid low volume, forming a potential bullish reversal pattern.
• Volatility remained compressed, with price hovering near the upper Bollinger Band in morning ET trading.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions by late ET, suggesting potential near-term profit-taking pressure.
• Turnover spiked sharply post-ET, indicating renewed short-term interest but no clear directional bias.

The Secret/Bitcoin (SCRTBTC) pair opened at 1.39e-06 on 2025-10-25 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 1.49e-06, and closed at 1.48e-06 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-26. Total traded volume over the 24-hour window was 282,398.7 units, while notional turnover amounted to approximately $417.20.

Price action during the 24-hour period revealed a series of consolidation phases interspersed with short-lived bullish attempts. A notable upward breakout occurred from 07:45 ET to 09:00 ET, where volume surged and the price climbed from 1.38e-06 to 1.46e-06—representing a 5.7% increase. However, this rally failed to hold, with the pair retreating slightly afterward, suggesting that buyers lacked conviction.

Structure & Key Levels

A strong support level was observed around 1.38e-06, where the price found a floor multiple times. A potential resistance is forming near 1.46e-06, where volume tended to wane following upward pushes. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 07:45 ET, with a long white candle suggesting a short-term reversal attempt. However, the pattern’s validity remains unconfirmed, as price subsequently retested the pattern’s high with limited follow-through.

Bollinger Bands indicated a recent volatility contraction from 04:00 to 07:45 ET, with price trading within a narrow range. This was followed by a sharp expansion as the pair broke out of the upper band, only to return to the middle band by late ET. This suggests a potential end of a consolidation phase, though the next 24 hours will be critical to determine whether the break above 1.46e-06 is sustained.

Momentum & Overbought Conditions

The RSI indicator showed overbought conditions from 09:00 to 11:00 ET, peaking above 70, indicating that the recent rally may be running out of steam. MACD showed a narrowing histogram during this period, signaling weakening bullish momentum.

A divergence between price and RSI emerged in late ET, as price continued to consolidate while RSI dropped below 50, hinting at a possible bearish correction. However, the strength of recent volume spikes suggests sellers may be hesitant to push the pair back below 1.38e-06.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bullish engulfing pattern and the RSI divergence, a backtest could be constructed using daily or hourly candle patterns to assess the profitability of entering a long position at the open of the next candle after pattern confirmation and exiting after a 24-hour holding period. The SCRTBTC pair has shown moderate volume responses to such setups, particularly when they occur near key support levels. To refine the strategy, a 0.25% slippage assumption and a 0.1% fixed transaction cost would provide a more realistic view of performance. The next step would be to run the backtest from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-26 to evaluate the frequency, average returns, and risk metrics of this pattern-driven approach on SCRTBTC.