Secret/Bitcoin Market Overview

• SCRTBTC formed a bullish breakout above key resistance during the 18:30–20:00 ET window.
• Momentum accelerated with a peak 15-minute volume spike of 80,966.6, aligning with the high of 1.71e-6.
• Price retested the breakout level with a bearish close near 1.61e-6, suggesting consolidation ahead.
• Bollinger Bands show tightening volatility before a sharp expansion post-18:30 ET.
• RSI hit overbought levels during the rally but has since retraced into neutral territory.

At 12:00 ET–1, Secret/Bitcoin (SCRTBTC) opened at 1.57e-6 and traded in a 24-hour range of 1.55e-6 to 1.71e-6 before closing at 1.55e-6 at 12:00 ET. Total volume amounted to 609,340.8 units, with notional turnover reaching $944.5 (assuming $1 = 1 BTC). The session included a sharp rally above 1.71e-6 followed by a corrective phase, suggesting a mixed technical environment.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a key breakout above 1.65e-6 during the 18:30–19:00 ET period, only to retrace and close below that level by 10:00 ET the next day. A bearish engulfing pattern was observed in the 9:30–9:45 ET candle, signaling possible short-term weakness. A doji formed at 1.56e-6 (10:45–11:00 ET), hinting at indecision between buyers and sellers.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA during the 19:30–20:00 ET window, confirming a bullish crossover. The 50-period MA held strong as dynamic support during the consolidation phase. Daily averages, however, show SCRTBTC below both the 50 and 200-day MAs, indicating a bearish longer-term bias.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bullish in the 18:30–20:00 ET window, with a histogram peak coinciding with the 1.71e-6 high. RSI surged into overbought territory (75–80) during the rally, followed by a sharp retreat to neutral levels below 55, confirming exhaustion. A bearish divergence between price and RSI during the 9:30–10:30 ET period suggests further downward pressure is likely.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility contracted between 17:00–18:30 ET, with price action consolidating within a narrow band before a sharp expansion post-18:30 ET. Price closed near the upper band after the 18:30 ET breakout but fell below the lower band by 21:00 ET, signaling a reversal in risk. The current price sits near the 20-period MA, indicating a potential turning point.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 80,966.6 during the 18:30–19:00 ET rally, coinciding with the high of 1.71e-6. A divergence appeared between volume and price as turnover dropped after the 20:30 ET peak, suggesting a lack of follow-through buying. The bearish close below key support at 1.6e-6 was accompanied by declining volume, indicating a possible exhaustion phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the 1.55e-6 to 1.71e-6 swing show that the current price is approaching the 61.8% retracement level at 1.60e-6. A break below this level would target 1.57e-6 as the next key support. On the daily chart, the 38.2% level at 1.58e-6 is holding firm for now but appears vulnerable to a breakdown.

Backtest Hypothesis

Using the 15-minute MACD crossover and RSI divergence as entry signals, a backtest could look for long entries when the MACD turns bullish and RSI dips below 30, with stop-loss levels placed just below the most recent swing low. Short positions could be triggered on bearish MACD and RSI above 70, with stops above the recent high. This aligns with today’s 18:30–19:00 ET breakout and subsequent RSI divergence, suggesting these conditions may offer repeatable setups in volatile markets.