Secret/Bitcoin Market Overview for 2025-09-25

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• Price drifted lower, closing near 1.39e-06, with bearish volume confirming the move.
• MACD and RSI signal weakening momentum and potential oversold conditions.
• Volatility remains constrained, with price tightly clustering around Bollinger Band midline.

24-Hour Summary

At 12:00 ET - 1 on 2025-09-24, Secret/Bitcoin (SCRTBTC) opened at 1.4e-06 and traded as high as 1.42e-06 during the 24-hour period. The pair reached a low of 1.36e-06 and closed at 1.39e-06 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25. The 24-hour volume was 146,581.4 SCRT, with a total notional turnover of approximately $206.22 (assuming BTC price of ~$65,000). The price action was marked by a steady decline, supported by bearish volume and minor retracements.

Structure & Formations

The price of SCRTBTC formed a bearish continuation pattern, with multiple instances of small bodies and long lower shadows in the late-night and early morning sessions. A key support level appears to be forming around 1.37e-06, where the price found buying interest after a brief dip. A potential resistance cluster exists around 1.4e-06 to 1.42e-06, where the price struggled to break above during the earlier part of the day. A notable bearish engulfing pattern occurred at 001500 ET on 2025-09-25, which signaled a shift in momentum. A doji at 204500 ET on the previous day indicated indecision before the price continued to trend downward.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended downward, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 20 MA crossed below the 50 MA, forming a death cross, which may indicate further declines in the near term. On the daily chart, the 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period moving averages are aligned in a downtrend, suggesting that the broader bearish momentum remains intact. The price closed below all these key moving averages, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained below the signal line for most of the 24-hour period, confirming the bearish momentum. A bearish crossover occurred at 204500 ET, followed by a steady decline in both the MACD and histogram bars. The RSI dropped below the 30 level during the night session, indicating oversold conditions. However, the RSI has yet to show a strong rebound, which may suggest that further downside is possible before a potential reversal.

Bollinger Bands

The price remained within the Bollinger Bands for most of the period, indicating low volatility. At 034500 ET, the price briefly dipped to the lower band before bouncing back slightly. The Bollinger Band width remained narrow throughout the period, suggesting a potential breakout or breakdown scenario. The price closed near the lower band, which could be interpreted as a sign of weak demand.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly at 204500 ET and 034500 ET, both during key downward moves, confirming the bearish bias. The volume during the 001500–003000 ET session was also above average, supporting the continuation of the downtrend. The notional turnover mirrored the volume patterns, with the largest spikes occurring during the major price declines. A divergence in volume and price action was not observed, indicating that the bearish trend is likely to continue.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the most recent 15-minute swing from 1.42e-06 to 1.36e-06, the 38.2% level is at 1.396e-06 and the 61.8% level is at 1.38e-06. The price is currently consolidating around the 61.8% retracement level, suggesting a potential support zone. On the daily chart, the price remains well below the 61.8% retracement of the broader bearish move from earlier in the year, which could indicate a deeper correction is still in play.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for SCRTBTC might involve entering a short position on a confirmed break of the 1.4e-06 resistance level with a stop above the recent high of 1.42e-06. A target for the short could be the 1.36e-06 level, aligning with the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement and a key support zone. Given the recent bearish momentum and confirmed volume, this strategy could be effective in a continuation of the current downtrend. The use of MACD and RSI to monitor the strength of the short trade could also be valuable in timing exits or stop losses.