Secret/Bitcoin Market Overview for 2025-09-22

• Secret/Bitcoin (SCRTBTC) closed 1.48% lower after a sharp sell-off overnight, with price testing key support multiple times.
• Momentum indicators show bearish divergence, with RSI near oversold and MACD signaling bearish momentum.
• Volatility remained range-bound in early hours, but a large-volume bearish move after 00:45 ET triggered further declines.
• Price is currently consolidating near 1.38e-06, a prior level of interest and potential short-term floor.
• Turnover surged during the overnight decline, suggesting participation from larger traders and a possible trend confirmation.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-22, Secret/Bitcoin (SCRTBTC) opened at 1.49e-06, reached a high of 1.49e-06, and closed at 1.38e-06 after a low of 1.37e-06. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 192,720.5 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $270.45.

Structure & Formations

Price moved in a tight range for much of the 24-hour period before a sharp bearish move after 00:45 ET took SCRTBTC from 1.47e-06 to 1.38e-06. This move was confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern at 00:45 ET and a large-volume candle that broke below 1.43e-06, a prior minor support. Price has since consolidated near 1.38e-06, suggesting a potential floor or pivot zone.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 and 50 SMA were crossed during the sharp sell-off, reinforcing bearish momentum. The 50 SMA has fallen below the 100 and 200 SMA on the daily chart, indicating bearish alignment across timeframes. This could signal continuation of the downward trend, provided price stays below the 1.42e-06 level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line during the 00:45 ET sell-off, confirming bearish momentum. RSI is currently near 30, indicating oversold conditions, but without a clear reversal pattern, this may not lead to a bounce. Divergence between price and RSI suggests further downside could be in play if volume remains elevated.

Bollinger Bands

Price has spent much of the day near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating a period of low volatility and bearish bias. The 1.38e-06 level aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent swing high to low, suggesting a potential short-term floor. A break below this level could lead to a test of the next Fibonacci level at 1.35e-06.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 00:45 ET candle with a large-volume move from 1.47e-06 to 1.38e-06, indicating participation from larger players. Turnover confirmed the move, with increased notional value traded during the decline. However, volume has dropped off in the morning, indicating a pause in conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Price is currently at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent 1.47e-06 to 1.37e-06 move. This level is likely to be a key area to watch, as a break below could confirm bearish sentiment and target the next 38.2% level at 1.35e-06.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current bearish momentum and oversold RSI levels, a potential backtest strategy could involve shorting SCRTBTC with a stop-loss above the 1.42e-06 resistance and a target at the 1.35e-06 Fibonacci level. This approach would align with the identified trend and key support levels discussed. A long position could be considered only if price closes above 1.43e-06, closing the bearish signal and confirming a potential reversal.