SEC's XRP ETF Green Light Could Trigger Crypto Domino Effect

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is poised to make a series of pivotal decisions in October 2025 on multiple XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications, with analysts emphasizing that the approvals could reshape the crypto market. As of now, 11 spot XRP ETF proposals are under review, with deadlines clustered between October 18 and November 14, 2025. Bloomberg analysts assign a 95% probability of approval for these applications, citing favorable legal precedents and growing institutional interesttitle1^[1]. The ProShares Ultra XRP ETF, the first XRP-linked product to secure approval, launched in July 2025, offering 2x leveraged exposure to XRP futurestitle2^[2]. This marks the beginning of a potential surge in institutional capital inflows, with projections suggesting XRP ETFs could surpass Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in sizetitle3^[3].

Key players in the XRP ETF race include Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, 21Shares, Bitwise, and WisdomTree, each submitting applications with distinct structural approaches. Grayscale’s XRP Trust, which seeks conversion to an ETF, faces a final SEC decision on October 18, while Franklin Templeton’s application is slated for November 14. Bitwise and 21Shares are expected rulings on October 20 and October 19, respectivelytitle4^[4]. The SEC’s extended review timelines—such as Franklin Templeton’s 60-day extension—reflect the agency’s cautious approach to regulatory scrutinytitle5^[5]. Analysts highlight the strategic advantages of these applications, including institutional-grade custody solutions, low management fees, and robust market surveillance agreements with major exchangestitle6^[6].

The potential approval of XRP ETFs is anticipated to unlock significant liquidity for the asset. XRP’s price has surged 480% year-to-date, reaching a seven-year high of $3.65 in July 2025, driven by regulatory clarity following Ripple’s legal victory over the SECtitle7^[7]. Post-approval price projections vary, with conservative targets at $5–$10 by late 2025 and bullish scenarios reaching $8–$12 in 2026title8^[8]. Technical indicators, including oversold RSI readings and a symmetrical triangle pattern, suggest further upward momentum if key support levels ($2.70–$2.80) holdtitle9^[9]. Institutional adoption is accelerating, with the Rex-Osprey Spot XRP ETF recording $37.7 million in first-day trading volume in September 2025title10^[10].

Regulatory developments have been a critical catalyst. Ripple’s 2020 lawsuit with the SEC, which claimed XRP was unregistered as a security, concluded in August 2025 with a favorable court ruling. Judge Analisa Torres’ decision in 2023 established that XRP is not a security in secondary market transactions, a precedent that has reshaped the regulatory landscape. The SEC’s new leadership under Chairman Paul Atkins has prioritized “Project Crypto,” a initiative aimed at modernizing digital asset regulations and fostering innovation. This shift has led to the suspension of enforcement actions and clearer guidelines for crypto custody and trading, bolstering market confidence.

The market impact of XRP ETF approvals extends beyond price movements. Analysts predict a “domino effect,” with applications for Solana, Litecoin, and Dogecoin ETFs gaining momentum post-XRP approval. Institutional adoption of XRP is also expanding into cross-border payments, with Ripple’s On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) solution leveraging the asset for instant transactions. Partnerships with banks like BNY Mellon and DBS to tokenize money market funds on the XRP Ledger further underscore its utility. Additionally, the launch of the XRP Ledger’s Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) sidechain in 2025 has attracted developers, with nearly 1,400 smart contracts deployed in its first week.

Despite optimism, challenges remain. Volatility risks persist, with XRP experiencing a 25% dip from its mid-September peak to $2.73–$2.77. Analysts caution that macroeconomic headwinds and broader market sentiment could temper gains. However, the influx of institutional capital and the SEC’s structured approval process provide a framework for sustained growth. As XRP approaches its ETF milestones, the asset’s trajectory reflects a broader trend toward institutional acceptance of digital assets, signaling a maturation of the crypto market.