SEC's Solana ETF Hurdles Clash with 95% Approval Odds as Bullish Bets Soar

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has continued to delay its decision on spot Solana (SOL) Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) applications, with major asset managers like Bitwise, 21Shares, and Franklin Templeton now facing deadlines in October and November 2025. This regulatory caution mirrors the prolonged review periods for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which were eventually approved in early 2024. Despite the delays, market sentiment remains bullish, with analysts and prediction markets estimating a 90-95% probability of approval by late 2025 or early 2026. The SEC’s focus on ensuring market integrity, preventing manipulation, and finalizing custody and surveillance-sharing agreements reflects its broader approach to integrating digital assets into traditional finance.

Seven major asset managers have filed or updated applications for Solana ETFs since 2024, including VanEck, 21Shares, Bitwise, Grayscale, Canary Capital, Franklin Templeton, and Fidelity. These filings underscore growing institutional confidence in Solana’s high-performance blockchain infrastructure, which processes over 65,000 transactions per second and supports decentralized finance (DeFi), NFTs, and enterprise solutions. Fidelity’s proposal, for instance, includes a unique staking component to generate yield for investors, distinguishing it from other applications. The SEC has acknowledged most filings, though Grayscale’s conversion of its existing Solana Trust into an ETF faces delays due to regulatory concerns.

The regulatory ambiguity surrounding Solana’s native token, SOL, remains a critical hurdle. While the Solana Policy Institute (SPI) advocates for classifying SOL as a commodity, the SEC’s Enforcement Division has previously labeled it an unregistered security. This duality complicates the approval process for a commodity-wrapped ETF. However, the existence of regulated Solana futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and custody solutions from institutions like the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) addresses key SEC requirements. Prediction markets, including Polymarket, currently price the likelihood of 2025 approval at 82%, with analysts like Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart reinforcing this optimism.

Market participants anticipate significant institutional capital inflows following approval, potentially exceeding $3 billion to $6 billion. This influx could drive Solana’s price to $300-$400 within months of approval, with some experts forecasting $750 or $1,000 in a sustained bull run. The approval would also legitimize Solana as a mainstream asset, accelerating adoption in DeFi, gaming, and real-world asset tokenization. Beneficiaries include asset managers, crypto exchanges like Coinbase and Galaxy Digital, and companies holding large SOL reserves, such as Forward Industries and Upexi. Conversely, competitors like Avalanche (AVAX) and Polygon (MATIC) may face increased pressure to secure similar regulatory clarity.

Challenges persist, including regulatory uncertainty, market volatility, and technical risks. While Solana’s scalability and low fees are strengths, past network outages and concerns about decentralization could impact investor confidence. Additionally, the “buy the rumor, sell the news” dynamic observed with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs may temper long-term gains. Institutional investors will need to balance these risks with the potential for Solana to become a cornerstone of crypto adoption, particularly as global ETF markets are projected to exceed $1 trillion in assets under management within five years.

The SEC’s methodical approach aligns with its historical pattern for novel investment products, suggesting a likely approval timeline similar to Bitcoin and Ethereum. Once cleared, a Solana ETF would not only validate the blockchain’s institutional viability but also set a precedent for broader digital asset integration. Investors are advised to monitor October and November 2025 deadlines for key applications, with post-approval capital inflows and network performance serving as critical indicators of sustained momentum.