SEC's Rule Shift Sparks XRP ETF Rush, $5 Target Looms by Year-End

XRP rose 4% on the day, closing at $3.0838 as of September 17, 2025, according to data from inVeZZXRP Price Jumps 3% Amid SEC ETF Approval, Upcoming US Fund Launch^[4]. The price action reflects renewed institutional interest amid regulatory developments, with the $3 level serving as a critical psychological threshold. Analysts note that the token’s ability to maintain this level will be pivotal ahead of anticipated U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) decisions on XRP spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs, which are expected to be finalized between October 18 and December 12, 2025Final List of XRP ETF Awaiting SEC Approval: Dates, Filings^[1].

The SEC’s recent amendment to Rule 6c-11 has streamlined the approval process for crypto ETFs, removing the need for separate 19b-4 filings for assets with established futures markets. This change, outlined in filings from exchanges like Cboe BZX and NYSE ArcaXRP Price Jumps 3% Amid SEC ETF Approval, Upcoming US Fund Launch^[4], could reduce review periods from months to weeks. The shift has accelerated applications from major asset managers, including Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, and Bitwise, all of which have submitted XRP ETF proposals. Bloomberg analysts estimate a 95% probability of approval for these productsXRP SEC Countdown 2025: Your Complete ETF Guide^[3], citing favorable court rulings in Ripple’s favor and growing institutional demand.

Eleven XRP ETF applications are currently under review, with deadlines ranging from May 2025 to December 2025Final List of XRP ETF Awaiting SEC Approval: Dates, Filings^[1]. The most advanced filings include Grayscale’s XRP Trust conversion, which seeks to transform its existing $16.1 million trust into an ETF by October 18, 2025Final List of XRP ETF Awaiting SEC Approval: Dates, Filings^[1], and Franklin Templeton’s proposal, which awaits a final decision on November 14, 2025Final List of XRP ETF Awaiting SEC Approval: Dates, Filings^[1]. ProShares’ 2x leveraged XRP ETF, the only approved application to date, launched in July 2025 and provides exposure to XRP futuresFinal List of XRP ETF Awaiting SEC Approval: Dates, Filings^[1]. Analysts suggest that approvals could unlock billions in institutional inflows, potentially surpassing Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in sizeFinal List of XRP ETF Awaiting SEC Approval: Dates, Filings^[1].

Technical and macroeconomic factors further support XRP’s trajectory. The token has shown resilience near its 100-day simple moving average ($2.70–$2.80) and is approaching its August high of $3.66XRP Price Prediction: From Legal Victory to ETFs and SWIFT – Ripple Use Case Builds Further^[2]. A dovish Federal Reserve, weaker U.S. economic data, and rising institutional adoption—evidenced by Bitcoin ETF inflows of $246 million in September—create a favorable backdrop for crypto assetsXRP Price Prediction: From Legal Victory to ETFs and SWIFT – Ripple Use Case Builds Further^[2]. Ripple’s blockchain technology, projected to reduce cross-border transaction costs by 60%XRP Price Prediction: From Legal Victory to ETFs and SWIFT – Ripple Use Case Builds Further^[2], also enhances its appeal as a corporate treasury asset.

Key catalysts in the coming months include the launch of the REX-Osprey XRP ETF on September 18, 2025XRP Price Jumps 3% Amid SEC ETF Approval, Upcoming US Fund Launch^[4], and the SEC’s final rulings on pending applications. Positive outcomes could drive XRP toward $5 by year-end, while rejections or delays may pressure the token below $3. Market observers are also monitoring Ripple’s legal developments and the potential adoption of XRP as a reserve asset by blue-chip firmsXRP Price Jumps 3% Amid SEC ETF Approval, Upcoming US Fund Launch^[4].