"SEC's November Decision Could Unleash HBAR's Next Big Move"

HBAR's price has seen notable fluctuations amid ongoing developments surrounding its ETF applications. Despite the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delaying the approval of both the Canary HBAR ETF and Grayscale’s HBAR ETF until November 8, 2025, the token has demonstrated resilience, with recent price movements suggesting growing investor interest [1]. The delay, attributed to the SEC's broader efforts to establish consistent listing rules for spot crypto ETFs, has not dampened the optimism surrounding HBAR's potential listing [3].

Technical analysis of HBAR's performance reveals a complex landscape. The token has shown signs of accumulation, with rising Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) despite relatively flat price action, indicating that investors are quietly building positions [1]. Additionally, HBAR has approached its 20-day exponential moving average, a key technical level that could signal a shift in market sentiment. However, these positive indicators are tempered by the scheduled release of over 106 million HBAR tokens in September, which could introduce downward pressure due to increased selling pressure [1].

The ETF applications from Grayscale and Canary are currently at a 90% approval probability, according to Bloomberg Terminal data [1]. This high probability is attributed to the SEC's final decision date set for November 11, 2025, creating a clear timeline for potential institutional adoption. Analysts suggest that if the ETFs are approved, they could unlock significant institutional inflows, mirroring the patterns observed with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs [2]. Such regulatory green light may enhance HBAR's visibility and credibility, potentially leading to increased liquidity and mainstream adoption.

HBAR's price has been characterized by volatility, with a recent surge pushing it to a five-month high before a sharp pullback [1]. The token's current price is trading at $0.24, having risen 84.72% from its level a month ago. This increase has positioned HBAR among the top 10 most traded Layer 1 assets by volume, outperforming the Layer 1 average by about 220%. Despite these gains, HBAR still trades 45% below its all-time high of $0.44, reached in September 2021 [6].

The recent price action has been accompanied by significant trading volumes, with the 24-hour trading volume reaching $462.10 million. This volume, while substantial, has seen a decline from the peak levels observed during the token's initial launch. The current circulating supply of HBAR stands at 42 billion, representing 85% of its maximum supply of 50 billion. The market cap of HBAR is currently $11.66 billion, reflecting strong investor confidence despite the ongoing regulatory uncertainties [6].

Looking ahead, the approval of HBAR ETFs could be a pivotal catalyst for the token. If the SEC approves the applications, HBAR could experience a re-rating, potentially pushing the price toward its July highs near $0.28 and possibly retesting $0.30. The approval would likely attract a mix of institutional and retail investors, leveraging the ease of access provided by ETFs. This scenario would align with the broader trend of institutional adoption in the cryptocurrency market, where ETFs serve as a bridge between traditional finance and digital assets [1].

Conversely, a rejection or further delay of the ETF applications could lead to a prolonged bearish phase for HBAR, with the price potentially retreating to the $0.15–$0.18 range. This outcome would be influenced by the token's current technical structure, including support levels around $0.20 and $0.18. Traders and investors are closely watching for a decisive daily close above $0.23, which would confirm that buyers are regaining control and potentially signal the start of a new bullish phase [1].

HBAR's market position and performance highlight its growing significance in the cryptocurrency landscape. The token's ability to maintain a strong buyer ratio and attract institutional interest underscores its potential for further growth. However, the interplay between regulatory developments, market sentiment, and technical indicators will be crucial in determining HBAR's trajectory in the coming months. As the November decision date approaches, all eyes will be on the SEC's final ruling, which could mark a turning point for HBAR's adoption and price performance [1].

Source: [1] HBAR ETF Approval Odds Hit 90%: Can the Price Rally From Here? (https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/d4355-hbar-etf-approval-odds-hit-90percent-can-the-price-rally-from-here) [2] HBAR Price Forecast: Analyst Targets 123% as ETF Odds ... (https://coingape.com/markets/hbar-price-forecast-analyst-targets-123-rally-as-etf-approval-odds-hit-90/) [3] SEC Delays Canary HBAR and Grayscale Polkadot ETF ... (https://coincentral.com/sec-delays-canary-hbar-and-grayscale-polkadot-etf-approval-again/) [6] Hedera Price, HBAR Price, Live Charts, and Marketcap (https://www.coinbase.com/en-de/price/hedera)