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The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has delayed final rulings on several
ETF proposals until October 2025, aligning decisions for major issuers such as Grayscale, 21Shares, Bitwise, and Canary Capital under a coordinated review process[1]. This extension, initially announced in September 2025, grants the SEC additional time to evaluate applications under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, with final decisions expected by October 18–25, 2025[2]. The move mirrors the agency’s approach to and ETFs, which were approved earlier in 2024, suggesting a standardized framework for cryptocurrency investment vehicles[1].The delayed timeline includes 13 pending XRP ETF applications, with eight likely to receive simultaneous rulings. Notable applicants include 21Shares, whose Core XRP Trust was first extended to October 19, and Grayscale, which seeks to convert its XRP Trust into a tradable ETF[1]. Franklin Templeton, REX-Osprey, and WisdomTree also face October deadlines, with the latter’s review pushed to November 14 after a 60-day extension[2]. Analysts note that the SEC’s coordinated approach reflects a broader strategy to streamline evaluations, potentially setting precedents for future altcoin ETFs[1].
Market implications hinge on institutional adoption. If approved, XRP ETFs could drive significant inflows, with estimates suggesting $5–$8 billion in initial demand[9]. Unlike Bitcoin’s ETF rollout, which saw gradual adoption, XRP’s limited exchange liquidity—Coinbase’s inventory has fallen 90%—could amplify price volatility[9]. Institutional buyers may need to offer higher prices to acquire XRP from long-term holders, many of whom have bought tokens between $0.20 and $3[9].
Technical analysis suggests XRP is at a critical juncture. The asset’s price has consolidated near $2.85, with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $2.58 and the 50-day SMA at $2.91[6]. A breakout above the $2.36 200-day SMA could target $3, supported by historical patterns where similar crossovers preceded 430% rallies[5]. However, bearish indicators, including a 7% price drop following the SEC’s delay announcement, highlight lingering uncertainty[4].
Regulatory outcomes in October could redefine XRP’s market narrative. A favorable ruling would position XRP as the third major cryptocurrency with U.S. spot ETF access, following Bitcoin and Ethereum[3]. Conversely, rejections could prolong regulatory ambiguity, impacting Ripple’s broader financial ambitions, including its national bank charter application. Analysts emphasize that approval would not only legitimize XRP as an investable asset but also bolster Ripple’s utility in cross-border payments through institutional partnerships[9].
The XRP ETF landscape remains dynamic, with global precedents offering insights. European and Canadian XRP ETFs have already demonstrated increased liquidity and institutional participation, suggesting a potential template for U.S. adoption. However, risks such as volatility amplification and quantum computing threats to blockchain security underscore the need for cautious investment strategies. As October approaches, the SEC’s decisions will serve as a pivotal test for XRP’s transition from speculative asset to institutional-grade investment.
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