Seat-by-Seat Analysis: Dutton's Quest for Majority and Albanese's Defense of Power

The Australian election will determine the government in 150 House of Reps seats. Labor holds 78 seats, the Coalition has 57, and 15 seats are held by independents. The election is a close race, with Labor's Anthony Albanese needing to win 76 seats for a majority, while Peter Dutton has a significant deficit. Key battlegrounds include outer suburban seats in Melbourne and Sydney, where the Liberals are hoping to break through, and middle suburban seats in Melbourne, Sydney, and Adelaide, where Labor may consolidate its gains.

The Australian election is set to determine the government in 150 House of Representatives seats, with Labor holding 78 seats, the Coalition with 57, and 15 seats held by independents. The election is a tight race, with Anthony Albanese needing to win 76 seats for a majority, while Peter Dutton faces a significant deficit.

Key battlegrounds include outer suburban seats in Melbourne and Sydney, where the Liberals are hoping to break through, and middle suburban seats in Melbourne, Sydney, and Adelaide, where Labor may consolidate its gains. The election is a close race, with the outcome hinging on a few dozen seats.

Labor's power base is built in Melbourne, Sydney, Perth, and Adelaide, but the Liberals believe they can break through in the outer suburban "mortgage belt" among working-class voters with conservative social views. The Liberals have targeted seats like Bruce, Holt, Dunkley, McEwen, Hawke, and Gorton in Melbourne and Werriwa, Macquarie, and Macarthur in Sydney.

Labor picked up a handful of middle suburban seats in 2022 that it does not usually hold, such as Bennelong and Reid in Sydney, Chisholm and Higgins in Melbourne, and Boothby in Adelaide. These seats are likely to be crucial for Anthony Albanese's prospects of holding onto power.

The Coalition dominates the regions, but there are a few exceptions. Labor holds eight seats along the populous NSW coast, and several of these are on Peter Dutton's target list. Seats like Hunter, Paterson, and Shortland in the Hunter Valley, and Dobell and Robertson on the Central Coast, could be decisive.

Western Australian voters swung en masse towards Labor in 2022, delivering four seats. However, most political observers think that was the high-water mark for Labor, and it can only lose ground from here. The outback seat of Durack is considered a potential target for the Coalition.

There are more than two dozen Labor seats on the Coalition target list and perhaps seven Coalition seats on the Labor target list, enough for either major party to win a solid majority. However, more than ever before, Australian elections are not just fought between the major parties. The 2022 election saw six teal independents win in blue ribbon Liberal seats, and independent Dai Le beat Labor in the Western Sydney seat of Fowler. Both Labor and Liberal believe they can reclaim some of that territory, and there are many seats where independents or Greens think they can win.

The election is a close race, and the outcome will depend on the results in these key battlegrounds.