Seagate Technology Stock: Analyst Estimates & Ratings - Outlook, Price Targets, and Earnings Surprise History.

Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX) has outperformed the broader market, with a 55% surge over the past 52 weeks and 78.9% YTD. Despite Q4 results beating expectations, the company's guidance for Q1 FY26 missed projections. Analysts expect an EPS of $9.01 for FY26, up 24.1% YoY, and a solid earnings surprise history. The stock has a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating and a mean price target of $165.42, representing a 7.1% premium to current price levels.

Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX) has been a standout performer in the broader market, surging 55% over the past 52 weeks and 78.9% year-to-date (YTD) [1]. Despite missing analyst projections for the fourth quarter (Q4) of fiscal 2025, the company reported strong earnings, which were above expectations. Seagate Technology's quarterly earnings per share (EPS) of $2.59 exceeded the consensus estimate of $2.45 [2]. This performance was driven by robust demand for its mass-capacity storage products, a shift towards a build-to-order (BTO) manufacturing model, and dynamic pricing strategies.

However, the company's guidance for the first quarter (Q1) of fiscal 2026 (FY26) missed projections. Analysts expect an EPS of $9.01 for FY26, up 24.1% year-over-year (YoY) [1]. This discrepancy highlights the challenges in forecasting Seagate's growth trajectory, given the rapidly evolving market dynamics.

Despite the Q4 miss, the stock has maintained a "Moderate Buy" consensus rating with a mean price target of $165.42, representing a 7.1% premium to current price levels [2]. This optimism is supported by Seagate's solid earnings surprise history, strong demand for its high-capacity storage products, and growing traction for its next-generation Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording (HAMR)–based Mozaic drives.

Seagate's financials reflect a healthy balance sheet. The company's debt has been reduced to $5 billion, and its net leverage ratio is 1.8 times, indicating a strong financial position [1]. Additionally, the company has initiated a $5 billion share buyback plan and declared a quarterly dividend of $0.72 per share, with a payout ratio of 42.54% [2].

Institutional investors, including Invesco Ltd., Vanguard Group Inc., and JPMorgan Chase & Co., have increased their stakes in Seagate Technology, further bolstering confidence in the company's prospects [2]. Analysts from Susquehanna, BNP Paribas Exane, Goldman Sachs, Cantor Fitzgerald, and Wedbush have also weighed in favorably on the stock, with several upgrading their ratings and target prices.

Looking ahead, Seagate is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for mass data storage driven by cloud providers and edge IoT customers investing in AI-powered initiatives. The company's BTO strategy provides visibility into solid future sales and margins, strengthening confidence in ongoing demand for its high-capacity nearline drives.

References:
[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/seagate-stock-skyrockets-80-2025-184142826.html
[2] https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-invesco-ltd-has-24308-million-stock-holdings-in-seagate-technology-holdings-plc-nasdaqstx-2025-08-13/