Scroll/Bitcoin Market Overview

Summary
• SCRBTC declined by ~7.5% over 24 hours, closing near intraday lows.
• MACD momentum weakened as the line crossed below the signal line.
• Bollinger Bands contracted early, then widened as volatility surged.
• Volume surged during key bearish moves late in the cycle.
• RSI entered oversold territory but failed to trigger a reversal.

Scroll/Bitcoin (SCRBTC) traded in a bearish trend over the past 24 hours, opening at 1.70e-06 and falling to a low of 1.54e-06 before closing at 1.57e-06. Total volume was 452,686.4 units, and notional turnover reached 693.4 units. A death-cross pattern emerged late in the session as the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart aligned downward.

Price action suggests a continuation of bearish momentum as key support levels are being tested. The 15-minute chart shows a consistent bearish bias with engulfing candlestick patterns forming around 1.64e-06 and 1.60e-06. A doji at 1.61e-06 hinted at indecision but failed to reverse the trend.

The 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart crossed below the 50-period line, reinforcing a bearish signal. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA continues to trade below the 100- and 200-period lines, confirming long-term bearish sentiment. MACD turned negative and crossed below the signal line in the late trading hours, signaling a potential deepening of the bearish momentum. RSI fell into oversold territory but failed to trigger a meaningful bounce.

Bollinger Bands show a contraction in early hours followed by a sharp widening as volatility surged during the decline. Price remained near the lower band for most of the session, indicating a distribution phase. Fibonacci retracements on recent bearish swings highlight potential support at 1.54e-06 (61.8%), where the price found a temporary floor.

Volume spiked during the key breakdowns, especially during the drop from 1.69e-06 to 1.59e-06. Notional turnover closely mirrored the price action, confirming the bearish momentum. There was no evidence of divergence between volume and price, suggesting that the bearish phase is likely to continue.

Looking ahead, further downward momentum could target key support levels, particularly at 1.54e-06, with a risk of testing 1.50e-06 if the trend continues. However, a reversal from this level could trigger a countertrend bounce. Investors should watch for a potential bullish reversal or a breakdown below 1.54e-06, which would confirm a deeper correction.

Backtest Hypothesis
To rigorously assess the predictive power of the MACD death-cross signal for SCRBTC, we propose a backtesting strategy that evaluates the profitability of short positions triggered when the MACD line crosses below the signal line. The hypothesis is that this event historically precedes and confirms a bearish phase. The backtest will use daily OHLC data from January 1, 2022, to today and will apply the following rules:

1. Entry Signal: Short position is entered at the close of the bar where the MACD line crosses below the signal line.
2. Exit Signal: Position is closed at the close of the bar when the MACD line crosses back above the signal line or after 5 trading days, whichever comes first.
3. Risk Management: Stop-loss is set at 3% below the entry price; take-profit is set at 1.5 times the stop-loss distance.
4. Performance Metrics: Evaluate cumulative returns, Sharpe ratio, and win/loss ratio to assess the strategy’s robustness.

This strategy aims to quantify the utility of the death-cross signal in a volatile asset like Scroll/Bitcoin, with results expected to inform more nuanced trading and hedging strategies.