Scroll/Bitcoin Market Overview

• Price declined from 1.51e-06 to 1.46e-06 over 24 hours.
• Momentum turned negative with RSI dipping below 30.
• Volume spiked during 20:30–21:00 ET, coinciding with the key price drop.
• Price consolidated near 1.46e-06 for much of the session, suggesting support.
• Volatility increased during the 21:00–22:00 ET period.

Scroll/Bitcoin (SCRBTC) opened at 1.51e-06 at 12:00 ET-1 and dropped to a 24-hour low of 1.46e-06 before closing at 1.46e-06 at 12:00 ET today. The pair traded within a range of 1.46e-06 to 1.51e-06, with a total volume of 139,608.4 SCRBTC and a notional turnover of 209.6 BTC. Price action showed a bearish bias throughout, with the most aggressive selloff occurring between 20:30–21:00 ET.

Structure & Formations

Price tested and briefly held the 1.51e-06 level early in the session but failed to sustain above 1.50e-06. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 18:00–18:15 ET, followed by a series of lower lows and lower highs. A key support level appears to have formed at 1.46e-06, where the price held firm for over three hours after the major selloff. No strong bullish reversal patterns were observed, indicating ongoing bearish control.

MACD & RSI

The RSI dipped below 30 at 21:00 ET, signaling oversold conditions, but failed to trigger a rebound. The MACD line turned negative early in the session and maintained a bearish divergence with price. This suggests momentum continued to weaken, even as price found temporary support. The slow stochastic oscillator remained in oversold territory for much of the day, but no meaningful buying pressure emerged.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Volatility increased during the 20:30–21:00 ET period, with a sharp contraction in the Bollinger Bands preceding the 1.46e-06 drop. Price closed near the lower band, indicating continued bearish pressure. The bands widened again during the 21:00–22:00 ET period, suggesting renewed volatility. However, there was no immediate breakout, pointing to a potential continuation of the downtrend.

Fibonacci Retracements & Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% Fibonacci level aligned with 1.46e-06, where the price found support. The 20-period SMA was below the 50-period SMA for the majority of the day, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA crossed below the 100-period SMA, indicating a potential shift in trend. Price closed below the 200-period SMA, a bearish sign for longer-term holders.

To validate the observed oversold conditions and potential for a rebound, a backtesting strategy could be applied using RSI as the primary indicator. By identifying periods when RSI fell below 30 and entering long positions, the strategy would hold for three days and assess performance. Given the recent failure of the RSI to produce a meaningful rebound, the backtest may reveal a weak signal in this zone, suggesting that oversold conditions do not reliably trigger rebounds in this pair. Confirming or refuting this hypothesis could provide better insight into the market’s behavior at these levels. This analysis should be run with accurate historical data for SCRBTC on a major exchange to ensure reliability.