Scroll/Bitcoin Market Overview for 2025-11-12

Summary
• SCRBTC drifted lower, forming bearish patterns with weak volume and declining momentum.
• Key support tested at 1.47e-06, with RSI hinting at oversold conditions but no bullish reversal.
• Volatility remained muted within Bollinger Bands, with no significant breakouts during the 24-hour window.
• Turnover dipped during overnight hours despite price consolidation around 1.48e-06.

Scroll/Bitcoin (SCRBTC) opened at 1.53e-06 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 1.54e-06, and fell to a low of 1.46e-06 before closing at 1.5e-06 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET. Total volume was 162,787.2, with a notional turnover of approximately $244.16 (based on Bitcoin price). The pair appears to be in a consolidation phase, with price hovering near the 1.48e-06–1.51e-06 range.

Key support levels identified include 1.47e-06 and 1.46e-06, where bearish pressure has repeatedly held firm. Resistance remains at 1.51e-06 and 1.52e-06. The formation of multiple bearish engulfing patterns and a doji near 1.48e-06 suggests lingering sell bias, though buyers showed some resilience in the early hours of 2025-11-12.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have converged near the lower Bollinger Band, signaling a potential overbought condition in volatility. However, RSI levels have not yet hit oversold thresholds (<30), indicating that the selloff may not yet be exhausted. MACD appears to be in a weak downtrend with no clear bearish divergence forming, suggesting traders should watch for potential exhaustion signals.
The 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent 1.46e-06 to 1.51e-06 swing align with key support/resistance levels. Price may retest the 61.8% retracement at 1.486e-06 in the next 24 hours. Volume remains subdued, particularly during overnight hours, which may suggest a lack of conviction among traders.

The backtesting strategy evaluated using RSI overbought signals (RSI > 70) as entry triggers and a fixed three-day exit rule has shown negative cumulative returns over the 2022–2025 period. The strategy appears ill-suited for SCRBTC given its choppy and range-bound tendencies, leading to frequent whipsaws and drawdowns. Adjusting RSI thresholds, incorporating trend filters, or introducing dynamic exits may improve outcomes. Testing position sizing and volatility-based entries could also add value.