SCRBTC Market Overview for 2025-11-04

Summary
• SCRBTC climbed to a 24-hour high of 1.69e-6 before reversing.
• Strong volume expansion observed during the 04:15–05:15 ET rally.
• RSI and MACD show overbought levels, hinting at potential short-term profit-taking.

Scroll/Bitcoin (SCRBTC) opened at 1.45e-6 on 2025-11-03 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 1.71e-6 before closing at 1.65e-6 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume was 674,086.3 with a turnover of approximately 109.23 BTC.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick chart reveals a strong bullish reversal pattern during the early morning hours (04:15–04:45 ET), with a high of 1.71e-6 marking a key resistance level. A bearish trend emerged later in the day, particularly after 14:00 ET, as the price retracted to 1.65e-6. A potential support zone has developed between 1.62e-6 and 1.65e-6, indicated by a series of failed bearish attempts.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages for the 15-minute chart indicate a bullish crossover around 04:15 ET, supporting the early morning rally. The 50-period daily MA remains below the 200-period MA, suggesting the longer-term trend is still neutral to bearish. The MACD histogram shows a strong positive divergence during the 04:15–05:15 ET period, aligning with the price breakout. RSI hit overbought levels above 70 during the same window, indicating potential short-term correction could be on the horizon.

Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci

Volatility increased significantly during the 04:15–05:15 ET rally, with the price breaking above the upper Bollinger Band. This expansion may indicate a continuation of the trend, or it could signal a short-term exhaustion of bullish momentum. On the Fibonacci retracement scale, the 61.8% retracement level is now at approximately 1.66e-6, where the price appears to have stalled in the final hours of the 24-hour period.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked to 72,218.3 units during the 04:15–04:30 ET window, coinciding with a sharp price move to 1.69e-6. This is a significant increase compared to the previous 15-minute windows, suggesting strong institutional or large-scale participation. Notional turnover also rose sharply, confirming the validity of the breakout. However, volume has since declined, hinting at reduced conviction in the current direction.

Forward-Looking View

The next 24 hours could see SCRBTC test the 1.65e-6–1.68e-6 support/resistance range, with a break below 1.62e-6 potentially signaling a larger correction. Investors should watch for a breakdown in volume and RSI returning to neutral territory before expecting a bullish resumption.

Backtest Hypothesis

To validate potential trade setups, a backtest using the RSI(14) could be implemented for SCRBTC. A standard strategy would involve entering long positions when RSI crosses above 70 (overbought) and exiting when it dips below 70 again. Given the recent overbought condition and the volume confirmation, this approach could provide a probabilistic edge in capturing short-term momentum. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages would also serve as confirmation filters for the entry and exit points.