SCRBTC Market Overview: 2025-10-11

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• SCRBTC declines 13.2% in 24 hours, breaking below key support levels with heavy volume during the sharp selloff.
• High volatility observed in 15-minute timeframe, especially between 19:00–21:00 ET as price dropped from 2.14e-06 to 1.95e-06.
• MACD and RSI signal bearish momentum, with RSI reaching oversold territory near 30, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce.
• Volume surges during the downward move, confirming bearish pressure and showing no signs of reversal patterns.
• Price retests 1.58e-06 resistance, but fails to break above, reinforcing the likelihood of a continued downtrend.

The Scroll/Bitcoin pair (SCRBTC) opened at 2.14e-06 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and reached an intraday high of 2.16e-06 before plummeting to a low of 5e-07 on 2025-10-10 at 21:30 ET. The 24-hour session closed at 1.59e-06 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET. Total trading volume amounted to 588,124.8 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $179,190 (assuming a BTC price of $62,000).

In terms of structure, the pair showed a strong breakdown below the 2.12e-06–2.14e-06 support cluster and failed to recover above 2.11e-06, forming a bearish continuation pattern. A large bearish candle on the 15-minute chart at 21:00 ET (from 2.14e-06 to 1.95e-06) confirmed the breakdown. The subsequent session saw consolidation below 1.59e-06, suggesting that bearish momentum is likely to persist unless the price closes above the 1.61e-06 resistance level.

The 15-minute 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed below the price during the sell-off, reinforcing the downward bias. On the daily timeframe, SCRBTC is trading below the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages, indicating a strong bearish trend. MACD showed a bearish crossover, while the RSI hit oversold levels near 30, suggesting a potential short-term bounce may be in play, but not a trend reversal. Bollinger Bands showed significant expansion during the selloff, indicating heightened volatility. Price has since settled near the lower band, consistent with the bearish bias.

Volume spiked dramatically during the sharp selloff from 2.14e-06 to 1.95e-06, with turnover peaking at 56,684.5 units in the candle at 21:00 ET. However, volume declined significantly after the move below 1.59e-06, suggesting exhaustion of the immediate bearish wave. A divergence is not currently evident, but traders should monitor volume closely for any signs of a reversal attempt. Fibonacci retracements from the 2.14e-06–5e-07 swing suggest 1.58e-06 as the 61.8% level, which has been tested on several occasions but failed to hold. Key support below this level is at 1.44e-06 and 1.35e-06.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves a mean reversion approach using RSI and Bollinger Bands to identify oversold conditions in a volatile market. Given the recent oversold RSI reading near 30 and the price sitting near the Bollinger Band lower limit, this strategy may find short-term bounce opportunities in SCRBTC. A potential setup would be to go long when RSI crosses back above 30 and the price breaks above the 1.61e-06 resistance level, with a stop-loss below 1.58e-06. However, given the dominance of bearish momentum and the strength of the breakdown, the probability of a sustained reversal is low. This approach would be most effective in a volatile, range-bound environment rather than in a strong downtrend.