SCRBTC Market Overview: 2025-09-18

• Price consolidates near 2.80e-06, with a modest 0.36% gain on the 24-hour close.
• Volatility remains muted with low volume and no clear overbought RSI readings.
• Key resistance at 2.83e-06 is being tested with limited follow-through.
• A bearish divergence appears between price and turnover late in the day.
• Bollinger Band contraction suggests potential for a breakout in the near term.

Scroll/Bitcoin (SCRBTC) opened at 2.80e-06 at 12:00 ET − 1, reaching a high of 2.83e-06 and a low of 2.71e-06 before closing at 2.80e-06 at 12:00 ET. Total trading volume over the 24-hour window was 150,403.5, while notional turnover amounted to $421.13 (approximate, based on Bitcoin pricing). The pair shows signs of short-term indecision with no decisive breakout from recent ranges.

Structure & Formations

The price has formed several key levels over the 24-hour period. A strong support level appears around 2.79e-06 to 2.80e-06, as the price repeatedly bounced off this range. On the higher end, 2.83e-06 serves as a critical resistance, with several candles failing to close above this level despite attempts. Notably, a bullish engulfing pattern emerged in the early hours of the day, but it was quickly negated by a large bearish candle in the late evening. A series of doji and spinning tops from 02:00–04:00 ET suggest indecision among traders ahead of a potential directional move.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are converging near 2.81e-06, indicating a potential equilibrium point. The MACD histogram is flat to slightly bearish, with a recent crossover suggesting bearish momentum may be gaining. The RSI, while not reaching overbought or oversold levels, has been hovering in the neutral range, suggesting a lack of conviction in either direction. This pattern may signal a continuation of consolidation rather than a breakout.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

The price has spent much of the 24-hour period near the middle of the Bollinger Bands, with no clear expansion in volatility. A minor contraction occurred in the early hours, which may set the stage for a breakout. However, as of 12:00 ET, the bands remain relatively flat, and the price has shown limited inclination to break out in either direction. This pattern may indicate a continuation of range-bound trading ahead.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was relatively low overall, with the most significant spikes occurring at 19:30 and 19:45 ET, where large volume candles indicated strong buying interest but failed to push the price above 2.83e-06. Turnover was also modest, with several periods of zero turnover suggesting thin liquidity. A bearish divergence appeared in the late evening as the price made higher highs while turnover declined, signaling potential exhaustion in the bullish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing from 2.71e-06 to 2.83e-06, the 61.8% retracement level sits at 2.78e-06, and the 38.2% at 2.80e-06. The current price is sitting at 2.80e-06, suggesting that this may serve as a key retest level in the near term. A break below 2.78e-06 could trigger a retest of the lower range at 2.71e-06, while a break above 2.83e-06 would indicate a potential short-term reversal in sentiment.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern confirmation, with a stop loss placed below the recent support at 2.79e-06 and a take profit at the 2.83e-06 resistance level. Alternatively, a short entry could be triggered on a bearish divergence in the RSI or MACD, with a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 2.78e-06. This strategy would leverage the recent consolidation phase and attempt to capitalize on a breakout in either direction.