Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) Soars 10.90% on Guidance, Upgrade

Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) shares surged 10.90% today, marking the third consecutive day of gains, with a cumulative increase of 13.44% over the past three days. The stock price reached its highest level since February 2025, with an intraday gain of 12.30%.

Over the past five years, the strategy of buying SMG shares after they reached a recent high and holding for one week yielded a 54.17% return, slightly underperforming the benchmark's 50.09% return. The strategy's Sharpe ratio was 0.46, indicating a reasonable risk-adjusted return, but with a maximum drawdown of -44.06% and a volatility of 42.64%, it carried significant risk.

The recent surge in Scotts Miracle-Gro's stock price can be attributed to several key factors. The company's reaffirmation of its fiscal 2025 guidance has played a significant role in boosting investor confidence. This reaffirmation underscores strong consumer engagement during the peak lawn and garden season, as well as an optimistic outlook on revenue growth and adjusted earnings per share.

Additionally, Jefferies Financial Group's upgrade of the stock from a "hold" to a "buy" rating has further contributed to the positive momentum. Despite a slight reduction in the price target, the upgrade reflects a bullish sentiment towards the company's future prospects. This move by Jefferies has likely encouraged more investors to take a closer look at Scotts Miracle-Gro, driving up demand for its shares.

Overall, the combination of strong consumer engagement, optimistic financial guidance, and a positive rating upgrade has created a favorable environment for Scotts Miracle-Gro's stock. As the company continues to navigate the peak lawn and garden season, investors will be closely monitoring its performance to see if it can sustain this upward trajectory.