U.S. Back-to-School Shopping Shifts Earlier Amid China Tariff Fears

Back-to-school shopping in the U.S. has transformed into a high-stakes exercise as families attempt to avoid rising costs tied to new tariffs on imports, particularly on goods made in China. The surge in strategic shopping reflects a broader shift in consumer behavior, with parents seeking early deals to mitigate potential price hikes. Retail analysts note that the anxiety around tariffs has led to a significant portion of back-to-school shopping being completed months before the start of the academic year.

According to Coresight Research, back-to-school spending in the U.S. is projected to reach $33.3 billion from June through August 2025, representing a 3.3% increase compared to the same period the previous year. The firm estimates that roughly 60% of this spending will occur before August, as families aim to avoid the financial impact of the 30% tariff on general merchandise from China. The shift is attributed to a more price-conscious consumer base, with Adobe Digital Insights analyst Vivek Pandya noting that consumers are shopping earlier to navigate price volatility [1].

Jacqueline Agudelo, a Miami resident, is among the many parents who started shopping in June for her 5-year-old son’s kindergarten supplies. Her list included 15 boxes of Crayola crayons, Lysol wipes, and five boxes of Ticonderoga pencils. Despite finding significant bargains, including the crayons at half price, she described the process as stressful, saying she felt “overwhelmed by the need to stay on top of where the deals are.” Agudelo spent about $160 but expressed frustration over the rising costs of school supplies, many of which are sourced from China [1].

A substantial portion of school supplies sold in the U.S., including backpacks, lined paper, and Ticonderoga pencils, are imported from China, where tariffs have been raised to 145% in some cases. Companies that ship goods from China were encouraged to send early shipments to avoid the new tariff rates. Despite this, the average retail cost of 48 back-to-school items for a family with two school-age children was $272 in July 2025, a $3 decrease from the same month in 2024, according to data from Numerator [1].

To help manage costs, retailers have introduced aggressive pricing strategies. Walmart, for instance, is offering a bundle of 14 school supplies and a backpack for $16, the lowest price in six years. Target has also frozen its 2024 prices on 20 key back-to-school items, ensuring they remain below $20 in total. These moves are part of broader efforts to retain customers amid rising costs and shifting consumer expectations [1].

Digital tools are also reshaping the back-to-school shopping experience. Platforms like TeacherLists allow schools and teachers to upload supply lists, enabling parents to build shopping carts directly from online retailers. The platform, which launched in 2012, now contains over 2 million lists from 70,000 schools. Users can click an icon to automatically populate a cart with items from participating retailers. Retailers have increasingly integrated these data sets into their own systems to streamline the purchasing process [1].

The evolution of school shopping habits reflects a broader trend: the digitization of education. As students do more work on computers, the demand for traditional supplies such as notebooks and pens has declined. However, Deloitte estimates that traditional school supplies will still account for over $7 billion of the $31 billion expected to be spent on back-to-school shopping in 2025. The rise of digital tools has also introduced new items on school supply lists, including headphones, earbuds, and computer accessories [1].

Technology is also playing a role in the decision-making process. AI-powered shopping assistants like Rufus and Sparky are now helping consumers compare products and receive age-specific recommendations. However, a July poll by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that only 26% of U.S. adults use AI for shopping, compared to higher adoption rates for tasks like information searches and brainstorming [1].

Despite the convenience of online bundles and digital tools, some traditions remain intact. Pre-pandemic, many schools and Parent Teacher Associations promoted pre-assembled supply kits as a way to simplify the shopping process and raise funds. According to data from Edukit, approximately 40% of parents opt for these kits, which typically include essentials like notebooks and crayons. However, Agudelo chose to shop individually, citing a desire to involve her son in the process and prepare him mentally for the school year [1].

As the back-to-school season progresses, the interplay between tariffs, consumer behavior, and digital innovation continues to shape the retail landscape. The early shopping wave, driven by fears of price hikes, has already set a tone for the rest of the season. Whether this trend continues into the future will depend on how effectively retailers and consumers navigate the evolving economic environment [1].

Source: [1]‘I am overwhelmed by the need to stay on top of where the deals are’: Back-to-school shopping turns into China tariff-dodging exercise (https://fortune.com/2025/08/13/back-to-school-shopping-tariffs-expensive-made-in-china/)