Back-to-School Shopping Prices Surge 9% Amid Trump's Trade War

A 9% year-over-year increase in online apparel and accessory prices in July has made back-to-school shopping more expensive, according to Klaviyo. The ongoing trade war is driving prices up, and discounts are lower by four percentage points compared to last year. Prices for household appliances and furniture have risen by 6% and 5% respectively, forcing Americans to adjust their shopping habits and opt for cheaper brands or BNPL loans.

The ongoing trade war has significantly impacted the cost of back-to-school shopping, with online apparel and accessory prices surging by 9% year-over-year in July, according to Klaviyo [1]. This substantial increase is largely attributed to the Trump administration's tariff strategy, which has driven prices up across various sectors.

Klaviyo, a publicly traded customer relationship management firm, found that average order values on 64% of apparel sites have increased during this back-to-school season [1]. Additionally, discounts have decreased by four percentage points compared to last year, making it more challenging for parents to find affordable deals [1].

The trade war's impact extends beyond apparel. Prices for household appliances and furniture have risen by 6% and 5% respectively, from pre-tariff trends, further burdening families [1]. Alberto Cavallo, a Harvard Business School professor, acknowledges that these price hikes are not unexpected given the research into tariffs' effects on prices [1].

The surge in costs is prompting Americans to alter their shopping habits. A Bankrate survey found that 30% of back-to-school shoppers are changing their buying habits due to inflation [2]. Some parents are opting for used clothes, buying fewer supplies, and even considering 'Buy Now, Pay Later' loans to manage their budgets [2].

The White House has maintained that real wages have increased and prices for essentials like gasoline and eggs have declined since Trump took office [2]. However, a Pew Research poll indicates that 61% of Americans disapprove of the tariff hikes, with more than twice as many expecting mostly negative effects from these policies [2].

As the trade war continues to influence consumer spending, investors and financial professionals should closely monitor these trends and their potential impacts on consumer confidence and economic growth.

References:
[1] https://www.benzinga.com/news/education/25/08/47280761/parents-feel-the-pinch-as-back-to-school-shopping-gets-9-costlier-amid-trumps-trade-war
[2] https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/21/business/prices-economy-back-to-school-tariffs