Back-to-School Prices Hit Mixed Bag Amid Tariffs and Promotions

Back-to-school prices are a mixed bag this year due to tariffs. Journals and notebooks have seen significant price increases, with some products up over 100%. However, other paper products like filler paper and composition books have seen price decreases attributed to promotional sales. The overall effective tariff rate is at its highest since 1934, creating uncertainty for consumers and retailers.

Back-to-school season is in full swing, but this year, parents and students are navigating a new landscape of prices influenced by recent tariffs. According to NBC News, the overall effective tariff rate has reached 18.6%, the highest since 1934 [1]. This has led to a mixed bag of price changes for back-to-school items, with some products experiencing significant price increases while others have seen decreases.

Journals and notebooks have been particularly affected, with higher-end notebooks from Moleskine on Amazon spiking more than 22% since March [1]. Bright Data found that journals and notebooks across price points have jumped nearly 100% in price [1]. This increase is likely due to the tariffs on imported goods, which have disproportionately affected products from countries like China and those with specific components like steel or aluminum.

On the other hand, some paper products like index cards and graph paper have seen price increases, while others like filler paper and composition books have decreased. NielsenIQ attributed these decreases to promotional sales [1]. For example, the price of a scientific calculator on Walmart’s website jumped 58% since June, highlighting the variability in pricing [1].

The latest government consumer inflation report showed that the price index for footwear rose 0.9% between July 2024 and July 2025, while apparel and sporting goods saw decreases of 0.2% and 1.3% respectively [1]. Education and communication commodities, which include computers and tech accessories, plunged 4.3% during the same period [1]. These numbers suggest that consumers are not yet feeling the full effects of tariffs.

Despite the uncertainty, parents are preparing for higher prices. According to a survey from the National Retail Federation (NRF), 90% of back-to-school shoppers expect prices to be higher this year due to tariffs, and 67% started shopping in July to plan ahead [1]. The average K-12 family anticipates spending more than $800 on back-to-school needs, down slightly from last year, with total spending expected to top $39 billion [1].

Walmart remains the top choice among parents, with 79% of surveyed shoppers planning to visit the store, followed by Amazon at 72% and Target at 54% [1]. Walmart has been drawing higher-income shoppers due to its low prices, even as it faces higher costs from tariffs [1].

To save on back-to-school shopping, parents can opt for store-brand products, which are on average 26% cheaper than name-brand alternatives [1]. Buying secondhand can also help dodge inflated prices on items like apparel, footwear, and sports gear.

Early shopping is likely to remain a trend as consumers prepare for more school-related purchases and the upcoming holiday season. As economic uncertainty lingers, consumers are looking for certainty and planning their spending accordingly.

References:
[1] https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/back-to-school-prices-rcna225698