SCETH Market Overview: 2025-10-05

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• Price remained narrowly consolidated around 5.9e-07 for most of the day, with minimal directional bias.• A brief breakout above 6e-07 in the early hours failed to hold, suggesting limited near-term upside momentum.• Volume remained subdued for most of the session, with sporadic spikes indicating limited market activity.• RSI hovered in mid-range territory, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions.• Bollinger Bands remained contracted, pointing to potential volatility breakouts in the near term.

Opening Summary and Context

Siacoin/Ethereum (SCETH) opened at 5.9e-07 on 2025-10-04 at 16:00 ET and closed at 5.9e-07 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour period saw a high of 6.0e-07 and a low of 5.8e-07. Total volume traded was 8,211,759.0, while notional turnover amounted to approximately $4.83 (based on 5.9e-07 average price).

Structure & Formations

The price of SCETH remained in a narrow range for the majority of the 24-hour period, with most candlesticks forming doji and indecisive lines. A few notable price expansions occurred, such as the candle at 02:00 ET that saw a slight drop to 5.8e-07 after a high of 6e-07. This candle formed a potential bearish harami pattern, indicating indecision in the market. A larger breakout candle appeared at 02:00 ET, with a high of 6e-07 and a low of 5.9e-07, but it failed to maintain the momentum, suggesting buyers lacked conviction in pushing price higher.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart shows SCETH currently trading below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which remain flat due to the lack of directional movement. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA has held steady near 5.9e-07, while the 100-period and 200-period MAs are slightly lower, reflecting a longer-term sideways bias. The convergence of the 20 and 50-period MAs suggests a period of consolidation, with no clear break above or below either level.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD remains near the zero line, with no significant divergence or momentum. RSI has oscillated within the 45–55 range for most of the session, indicating a lack of strong overbought or oversold conditions. A brief spike in RSI to 58 around 02:00 ET coincided with a price rejection at 6e-07, suggesting bearish pressure. A corresponding bearish divergence appears in the MACD, where price made a high but MACD failed to follow suit, indicating potential bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands remained tightly contracted for most of the day, with price trading near the mid-band. A brief expansion occurred after 02:00 ET, with the upper band reaching 6.0e-07 and the lower band at 5.8e-07. Price briefly touched the upper band but quickly pulled back, indicating a failed breakout attempt. The continued contraction of the bands suggests a period of low volatility, which could precede a breakout or breakdown in the near future.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained subdued for the majority of the session, with most 15-minute intervals recording 0.0 volume. However, notable spikes in volume occurred at 17:45 ET (101,392.0), 02:00 ET (286,864.0), and 02:45 ET (617,828.0), which coincided with minor price shifts. Turnover spiked in line with these volume surges, particularly in the early hours, suggesting increased liquidity but no directional bias. A divergence between volume and price action occurred after 02:00 ET, where volume increased but price failed to move higher, signaling bearish exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from 5.8e-07 to 6.0e-07, the 38.2% level sits at approximately 5.946e-07, and the 61.8% level at 5.926e-07. Price touched the 38.2% level at 02:00 ET but failed to hold it, indicating bearish pressure. On the daily chart, key retracement levels from the recent high of 6.1e-07 to the low of 5.7e-07 include 5.94e-07 (38.2%) and 5.86e-07 (61.8%). SCETH is currently hovering near the 38.2% level, suggesting potential resistance ahead.

Backtest Hypothesis

The outlined backtesting strategy focuses on identifying consolidation patterns in low-volume environments and using Fibonacci retracement levels to target potential entry and exit points. The recent SCETH action, with its tight range and failed breakout, aligns well with this approach. A testable hypothesis would be to monitor the 38.2% Fibonacci level as dynamic support, with stop-loss placement below the 5.86e-07 level. If the price breaks above the 5.94e-07 level on increased volume, this could signal a shift to a bullish bias, supporting a short-term long position. The strategy’s effectiveness would be tested over the next 24–48 hours, given the high probability of volatility expansion.