Scaramucci's 2026 Altcoin Bets: A Tactical Analysis of the 2025 Sell-Off and 2026 Catalysts

The brutal 2025 downturn for altcoins was not a simple bear market. It was a tactical event, a perfect storm of whale selling, forced deleveraging, and a liquidity crunch that created a sharp, bearish sentiment that Scaramucci now sees as a potential setup for 2026. The scale of the move was staggering, with the three tokens he now champions suffering severe pain: Solana fell 37.8%, Avalanche 65.27%, and Toncoin 70.15%. This wasn't just macro-driven weakness; it was a specific, internal market breakdown.

The primary catalyst was a massive outflow of capital from large holders. Scaramucci identified about $4.6 billion of whale selling throughout the year, a figure that directly pressured prices. This selling was amplified by a critical deleveraging event around October 10. As traders and market makers were forced to unwind positions, it triggered a liquidity crisis that dragged even Bitcoin down roughly 30%. For altcoins, which are inherently more volatile and less liquid, the impact was catastrophic. The move was so severe that Scaramucci described a 30% drop as "garden variety" for Bitcoin, yet still a surprise for those who were bullish.

This forced selling created extreme bearish sentiment, a condition Scaramucci views as a key countertrend indicator. His internal "bull meter" now sits at 13 or 14 out of 100, a level of pessimism that he argues makes the market more vulnerable to positive catalysts. In other words, the pain was so deep and widespread that it likely exhausted much of the negative positioning, setting the stage for a sharper rebound if conditions improve.

The bottom line is that the 2025 sell-off was a tactical event, not a fundamental collapse. It was driven by a specific sequence: large holders selling into ETF demand, a deleveraging event that forced a liquidity crunch, and a resulting sentiment collapse. The performance of the tokens Scaramucci now names-Solana, Avalanche, and Toncoin-shows that even strong, fundamental narratives were overwhelmed by this internal market pressure. For 2026, his thesis hinges on this sentiment turning, with rate cuts, regulatory clarity, and steadier ETF flows providing the fuel for a reversal.

The 2026 Catalyst Engine: Macro Policy and Regulatory Clarity

The structural environment for altcoins in 2026 hinges on two macro catalysts: a shift in monetary policy and a breakthrough in regulatory clarity. Anthony Scaramucci's bullish thesis rests on this dual engine, but its plausibility requires a sober assessment of political and economic realities.

The first pillar is the expectation of two to four interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Scaramucci argues that a president facing midterm elections will prioritize growth optics, flooding the market with capital. This narrative aligns with broader market sentiment, where experts see a dovish pivot as a key driver for digital assets. However, the Fed's path is fraught with constraints. The central bank is not a one-man show; it operates through a committee with entrenched hawkish members. Economic data presents a mixed picture: while the labor market is softening, resilient consumer spending and AI-driven investment support GDP growth. This balance weakens the case for aggressive easing. Furthermore, the political landscape adds friction. President Trump is finalizing his choice for a new Fed chair, with a longtime ally, Kevin Hassett, seen as the frontrunner. While Hassett is viewed as a pragmatist, his appointment would still require winning over the FOMC. The bottom line is that a 2-4 cut cycle is possible, but it is far from guaranteed and would likely be a measured, data-dependent process rather than a sudden flood of liquidity.

The second pillar is regulatory clarity, specifically the passage of the Clarity Act before the November midterms. Scaramucci argues that legal uncertainty is the primary barrier to institutional tokenization, citing a $4 trillion annual cost of transaction verification that could be slashed. The political calculus here is more favorable. The bill has already cleared the House and is expected to face a Senate markup in January. White House adviser David Sacks has stated the Senate is closer than ever to passing the landmark crypto market structure legislation. Scaramucci estimates the odds of passage before midterms at north of 50%, noting that Democrats have learned there is no anti-crypto voter. This bipartisan incentive, coupled with the bill's status as a legislative priority, makes this catalyst more tangible than the monetary policy shift.

Yet the setup is one of extreme bearish sentiment, a classic countertrend indicator. Scaramucci's own internal sentiment gauge sits at 13 or 14 out of 100, and search queries for Bitcoin are near historic lows. This creates a potential for a sharp, momentum-driven rally if either catalyst materializes. However, the risks are significant. For monetary policy, the Fed's independence and the committee's composition are formidable hurdles. For regulation, the midterms themselves are a wildcard; a shift in congressional control could stall or alter the bill's trajectory. The bottom line is that Scaramucci's thesis identifies two powerful, interconnected drivers. The regulatory catalyst appears more imminent and politically viable, while the monetary policy shift is a necessary but less certain condition. For altcoins, the path to a "better tape" depends on navigating these dual channels of political will and economic data.

Network Fundamentals: Assessing the Structural Case for SOL, AVAX, and TON

The structural case for these Layer-1 tokens rests on distinct technical advantages and ecosystem dynamics, moving beyond speculative narratives to assess durable competitive moats. For Solana, the thesis is built on its low-cost, high-speed rails and developer-friendly environment. The network processes nearly 1,000 transactions per second with rock-bottom costs, a feature that has driven its on-chain revenue leaping 186% year-over-year in 2025. This scalability has attracted a critical mass of users and developers, evidenced by its TVL recently surpassing $10 billion. The institutional validation is tangible, with Solana ETFs attracting $476 million in net inflows over 19 consecutive days in late 2025. This combination of performance, developer adoption, and growing institutional interest forms a powerful, self-reinforcing network effect that is difficult for competitors to replicate overnight.

Avalanche's appeal lies in its fundamentally different technical paradigm: a subnet architecture designed for enterprise applications. Unlike Solana's high-throughput single chain, Avalanche's subnet system allows custom chains for enterprise DeFi applications. This provides developers with dedicated, independent infrastructure for their specific needs, reducing the risk of system-wide outages that have plagued Solana. The architecture theoretically supports 6,500 transactions per second, positioning it as a serious rival in the high-speed, low-cost race. The strategic advantage is clear: it attracts developers seeking a more controlled and customizable environment, potentially capturing a different segment of the enterprise market than Solana's focus on gaming and trading.

The case for TON is the most speculative, tied directly to the growth of its parent ecosystem, Telegram. The network boasts an impressive theoretical throughput of 55,000 transactions per second through its sharding approach. However, its fundamental structure presents a unique risk: an infinite maximum supply. This design choice, while enabling fee-free transfers within Telegram, creates a perpetual dilution risk that is antithetical to traditional store-of-value narratives. As Scaramucci himself acknowledged, his timing was wrong on this pick, with the token collapsing from $7.50 to around $1.50. The investment thesis here is entirely contingent on Telegram's continued network growth and the successful adoption of its TON-based services, making it the most vulnerable to execution risk among the three.

The bottom line is a spectrum of structural cases. Solana offers a proven, scalable technical advantage with strong network effects and institutional validation. Avalanche presents a compelling alternative technical architecture for a specific enterprise niche. TON, by contrast, is a pure bet on a centralized platform's success, with a tokenomic design that introduces significant long-term uncertainty. For investors, the choice reflects a trade-off between a durable, multi-chain moat and a high-risk, ecosystem-dependent play.

Investment Implications and Forward-Looking Scenarios

The structural shift in the crypto market from 2025's selling pressure now faces a critical test in 2026. The success of any investment thesis, including those like Anthony Scaramucci's, hinges on a confluence of macro policy and on-chain execution. The primary catalyst is the passage of the Clarity Act and the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting path, which will determine whether the market's bearish sentiment can reverse. A key risk is that these policy drivers fail to materialize as expected, leaving the market vulnerable to renewed whale selling.

The legislative front is moving into high gear. White House adviser David Sacks has confirmed that a Senate markup for the Clarity Act is coming in January, aiming to end the regulatory turf war between the SEC and CFTC. This is a pivotal moment. As Scaramucci argues, legal uncertainty is a major constraint on tokenization and institutional adoption. Passage of this landmark market-structure legislation would provide the regulatory clarity needed to unlock broader investment. However, the process is not guaranteed. The bill's progress could stall, or its implementation could be delayed, leaving the market exposed to the same regulatory headwinds that fueled 2025's pain.

Simultaneously, the Federal Reserve's direction will be a major macro tailwind. Scaramucci projects two to four rate cuts for the year, betting that political considerations ahead of the November midterm elections will drive a more dovish policy. This outlook is plausible, given the Fed's independence is being tested as Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May. A Trump-appointed successor, potentially Kevin Hassett, could be more inclined to aggressive easing. Yet the Fed is a process, not a one-man show. The presence of hawkish officials on the FOMC and the potential for a weakening economy by mid-2026 could limit the pace and scale of cuts. Investors must watch for the first rate decision of the year as a leading indicator of the Fed's true path.

For the market's structural reversal to take hold, these macro catalysts must be met with a shift in on-chain behavior. The evidence shows a critical tension. While whale selling and long-term holder outflows cooled in late 2025, institutional flows remain negative and sentiment is stuck in extreme fear territory. The real test is whether the anticipated policy tailwinds translate into sustained accumulation. Scaramucci's top pick, Solana, offers a case study. On-chain data shows whales accumulating Solana-related tokens was the most discussed trend at the start of 2026, even as the price consolidated. This suggests smart money is positioning ahead of a potential breakout. Yet metrics like the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio are flashing bearish signals, indicating the price may be overvalued relative to transaction activity. The bottom line is that whale accumulation trends and on-chain transaction growth are the leading indicators that will confirm whether the structural reversal is taking hold or if the market remains in a holding pattern.

The forward-looking scenario is binary. If the Clarity Act passes and the Fed delivers a steady, dovish policy, it could fuel a liquidity wave that rotates into crypto, particularly into high-utility assets like Solana. This would validate the "multicoin world" thesis. The risk is that policy disappoints or regulatory progress stalls, leaving the market vulnerable to renewed selling pressure from large holders. In that case, the crypto winter fears that lingered into 2026 could extend further. For investors, the setup demands patience and a focus on these dual catalysts: legislative clarity and monetary easing, validated by on-chain accumulation.