Saylor's 100th Buy: $40M Flow in a $7B Loss Context

The mechanics are clear: Strategy funded its 100th Bitcoin purchase with a direct cash infusion from its own stock. The company sold 297,940 shares of its Class A common stock via its at-the-market program between February 17 and 22, generating $39.7 million in net proceeds. This capital was used to acquire 592 BTC for $39.8 million at an average price of $67,286 per coin.

This adds to a massive, concentrated position. The purchase brings Strategy's total Bitcoin stake to 717,722 coins, acquired for an aggregate cost of $54.56 billion at an average price of $76,020. At current market prices, that portfolio reflects an unrealized loss of about $7.1 billion. The math is stark: the company is buying more Bitcoin while its existing treasury loses billions in paper value.

The timing underscores the strategy's contrarian stance. The purchase occurred as Bitcoin traded near three-week lows, pressured by global trade policy shifts. Despite the broader market unease and a 24% decline this year, the company is executing its plan. This flow-selling equity to buy more Bitcoin-has been the engine of its accumulation, making it the dominant force in corporate Bitcoin buying.

The Market: Corporate Dominance vs. Extreme Fear

The disconnect is stark. While the broader market is gripped by panic, one corporate entity is buying aggressively. Strategy has accounted for over 90% of all net new corporate Bitcoin purchases this month. This buying spree, funded by stock sales, continues unabated even as Bitcoin trades near multi-week lows and the company's own stock reflects that weakness.

That buying is happening against a historic backdrop of fear. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has plunged to a historic low of 5–8, signaling extreme market capitulation. This level of fear often precedes turning points, but the market lacks the conviction for a strong relief rally. After recent drops, Bitcoin's recent drops are no longer followed by strong relief rallies, indicating buyers are hesitant and sellers remain in control.

The setup is one of extreme sentiment divergence. On one side, a single corporate treasury is executing a disciplined, long-term accumulation plan. On the other, the market-wide sentiment is at a record low, with short-term holders sitting on massive losses. This creates a fragile equilibrium where the lack of aggressive buying support leaves the price vulnerable to further downside, even as the deepest fear may signal the final shakeout for weaker hands.

The Catalysts & Risks: What Could Break the Stalemate

The immediate technical battleground is the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, around $69,600. A decisive break and close above this zone could shift sentiment by attracting fresh buying pressure, potentially pushing the price toward $72,000. Conversely, rejection below the key descending trend line keeps the structure weak, with a drop below $64,500 a clear bearish signal.

Analyst views are sharply divided on the path ahead. Some see a prolonged downtrend, with CEO Steven McClurg targeting a summer low near $50,000. Others point to a potential rebound later in 2026, noting that Bitcoin's historical four-year cycle around the halving event may still be intact. This divergence creates a volatile setup where the market lacks a clear directional catalyst.

The primary near-term risk is a shift in institutional behavior. With the Federal Reserve outlook less dovish, ETF holders may be more inclined to sell rather than buy dips. This dynamic, highlighted by Standard Chartered's analysis, could prolong the downtrend and exacerbate selling pressure, especially if short-term holders' massive unrealized losses-now nearing $32 billion-trigger further panic liquidations.