Sarepta Therapeutics Skyrockets 14.29% as FDA Clears Elevidys—Can It Sustain the Momentum?

Summary
• FDA lifts Elevidys shipment pause, unlocking $40M+ in annual revenue potential
• SRPT surges 14.29% to $15.84, trading near 52-week high of $145
• 622M shares traded—66.56% of 52-week volume—signal intense market participation

Today’s volatility in Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) reflects a seismic shift in regulatory risk. The FDA’s decision to resume Elevidys shipments has erased a critical overhang, propelling shares 14.29% to $15.84. With 622M shares exchanged and a 37 RSI reading, the stock is testing key technical levels. This move could mark a turning point for a company that’s shed 86% year-to-date but now faces a potential $40 price target.

FDA's Elevidys Resumption Sparks Sarepta's Surge
Sarepta’s 14.29% surge stems from the FDA’s decision to remove the voluntary pause on Elevidys shipments, its flagship gene therapy for Duchenne muscular dystrophy. This regulatory greenlight eliminates a $400M+ annual revenue drag and removes existential risk of market withdrawal. The catalyst coincides with Sarepta’s $400M annual cost restructuring plan, which transforms its financial profile from cash-burn to potential profitability. While three patient deaths initially triggered the Elevidys hold, the FDA’s investigation exonerated the therapy, restoring commercial access for ambulatory patients.

Biotechnology Sector Mixed as Amgen Stabilizes
The Biotechnology sector remains fragmented, with Amgen (AMGN) trading flat at 0.51% gains. While Sarepta’s 14.29% surge is product-specific, the sector’s broader challenges persist: high R&D costs, regulatory uncertainty, and margin pressures. Sarepta’s revival hinges on Elevidys alone, whereas sector leaders like Amgen benefit from diversified pipelines and stable cash flows.

Options and ETF Strategies for SRPT's Volatility
• MACD: -3.76 (bullish divergence from signal line -3.996)
• RSI: 37.04 (oversold territory)
• Bollinger Bands: $11.12–$22.38 (current price at 15.84 near middle band)
• 200D MA: $82.60 (far above price)—long-term bearish

SRPT’s 37 RSI and -3.76 MACD signal short-term oversold conditions, but the 200D MA ($82.60) underscores structural bearishness. Key support lies at $15.82 (intraday low) and resistance at $18.29 (day high).

Top Option 1: SRPT20250808C16
• Strike: $16 | Expiry: 2025-08-08 | IV: 123.14% (high volatility)
• Delta: 0.540 | Theta: -0.0908 | Gamma: 0.1163 | Turnover: 68,777
• LVR: 11.82% (moderate leverage)
• Volatility: 123.14% (high IV premium)
• Gamma: 0.1163 (sensitive to price swings)
• Theta: -0.0908 (time decay manageable)
• Turnover: 68,777 (liquid)
• Payoff at $16.63 (5% up): $0.63/share
• This call offers a balance of leverage and liquidity, ideal for a 5–7% price rebound.

Top Option 2: SRPT20250815C17
• Strike: $17 | Expiry: 2025-08-15 | IV: 147.74% (extreme volatility)
• Delta: 0.491 | Theta: -0.0731 | Gamma: 0.0762 | Turnover: 54,574
• LVR: 9.50% (moderate leverage)
• Volatility: 147.74% (IV premium)
• Gamma: 0.0762 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0731 (manageable decay)
• Turnover: 54,574 (liquid)
• Payoff at $16.63: $0.00/share (strike too high)
• While IV is extreme, the 0.491 delta offers directional exposure if the 52-week high retests.

Aggressive bulls may consider SRPT20250808C16 into a bounce above $16.50.

Backtest Sarepta Stock Performance
The backtest of SRPT's performance after an intraday surge of 14% shows poor short-term results, with the 3-day win rate at 50.26%, the 10-day win rate at 49.21%, and the 30-day win rate at 45.15%. The strategy underperformed, with a maximum return of only -0.12% over 30 days, indicating that such a surge led to negative returns in the subsequent days.

Sarepta's Rebound: Position for a $40 Rally or Exit on Weakness
Sarepta’s 14.29% surge hinges on two pillars: regulatory clarity for Elevidys and cost restructuring. While the 37 RSI and -3.76 MACD hint at oversold conditions, the 200D MA ($82.60) remains a long-term bearish anchor. Investors must weigh the $15.82 support level against $18.29 resistance. For context, sector leader Amgen (AMGN) is up 0.51%, showing SRPT’s move is product-specific. Watch for a $16.50 breakout or breakdown below $15.82 to dictate next steps.