Sarepta's 10.9% Plunge: A Perfect Storm of Earnings, Safety Warnings, and Leadership Uncertainty?

Summary
• Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) plunges 10.9% intraday to $16.41, its lowest since 2023
• Q4 adjusted loss of $3.58/share misses estimates by 242%, while Elevidys sales drop 71% YoY
• CEO Doug Ingram announces retirement by year-end, adding to leadership uncertainty

SRPT’s sharp selloff reflects a confluence of deteriorating fundamentals: a wider-than-expected Q4 loss, safety-related Elevidys sales collapse, and impending CEO transition. With the stock trading near its 52-week low of $10.415, investors are bracing for a volatile 2026 as the biotech giant navigates regulatory scrutiny and pipeline recalibration.

Q4 Earnings Miss, Safety Concerns, and Leadership Transition Trigger Sharp Selloff
Sarepta’s 10.9% intraday drop stems from three compounding factors: (1) a Q4 adjusted loss of $3.58/share, 242% wider than the $0.87 consensus, driven by $273.8M in Elevidys sales declines due to non-ambulatory shipment suspensions; (2) ongoing safety concerns linked to AAVrh74 vector-related liver failures, forcing a revised immunosuppression protocol; and (3) CEO Doug Ingram’s announced retirement, creating leadership vacuum amid strategic shifts toward siRNA programs. The stock’s 9.8% pullback below its 200-day SMA and 3.5% gap below the 20-day SMA signal deepening bearish momentum.

Bearish Options Playbook: Leveraging Volatility in SRPT’s Freefall
• 200-day SMA: $21.91 (well below) • RSI: 45.48 (oversold) • MACD: -0.65 (bearish) • Bollinger Bands: 16.42–21.44 (price near lower band)

SRPT’s technicals confirm a breakdown: price is 16% below its 200-day SMA, RSI is in oversold territory, and MACD remains negative. Key support levels at $15.50 (March 6 put strike) and $16.50 (March 6 put strike) could attract short-term volatility. The March 6 $17 put (SRPT20260306P17) and $17.50 put (SRPT20260306P17.5) stand out for bearish exposure:

• SRPT20260306P17: Delta -0.48, IV 82.95%, leverage 18.83%, theta -0.008, gamma 0.1805
• SRPT20260306P17.5: Delta -0.568, IV 84.08%, leverage 14.12%, theta -0.00018, gamma 0.1757

Under a 5% downside scenario (price at $16.06), the $17 put yields a 63.64% return, while the $17.50 put offers -14.29% (due to time decay). Aggressive short-sellers should prioritize the $17 put for liquidity (9,952 turnover) and gamma sensitivity, while the $17.50 put suits directional bets on a $16.50 support break. For ETF exposure, consider XBI (Biotech Select Sector SPDR) as a proxy, though its -0.57% intraday move suggests sector-wide caution.

Backtest Sarepta Stock Performance
The backtest of SRPT's performance after an intraday plunge of -11% from 2022 to the present shows mixed results. While the stock experienced a maximum return of 0.18% over 30 days, the overall trend was negative, with a 30-day return of -1.07% and a 10-day return of -0.07%. The 3-day win rate was 48.64%, indicating that the stock recovered moderately in some periods, but the longer-term returns were not as favorable.

SRPT at Inflection Point: Watch March 6 Expiry and MDA Data Catalysts
Sarepta’s 10.9% selloff reflects a critical juncture: regulatory scrutiny over Elevidys safety, leadership uncertainty, and a bearish technical setup. While the March 6 options expiry offers near-term volatility, investors must monitor the MDA 2026 data presentations (March 8–11) for potential long-term catalysts. The biotech sector leader Novartis (NVS), down 0.57%, underscores broader risk-off sentiment. Aggressive traders should target a $16.50 support break, while long-term investors may consider the $15.50 put (SRPT20260306P15.5) for a 3389% leverage play if the stock tests its 52-week low. Action: Short SRPT20260306P17 into a $16.50 breakdown.